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Part Precision, Part Luck

E-MAIL STORY

Recently I discussed the merits of the median home price per square foot as a somewhat better indicator of home pricing power than the plain-vanilla median price.

Displaying four-month charts of each series, I noted the remarkable smoothness of trend in the former as compared to the latter.

I have since attained some more historical info, and when we zoom out a bit to see the bigger picture, it becomes clear that the median price per square foot hasn't moved as smoothly as it initially appeared. The seeming tranquility during our initial four month period was as much luck as anything -- always a danger with small data sets.

While a bit more volatile than it first seemed, this indicator still looks pretty serene compared to its more widely-cited brethren.

I'm still favoring the median price per square foot as a better means of determining what's actually going on with home prices.

A Nerd's Eye View

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*;
he also writes about San Diego real estate at Piggington's Econo-Almanac.
Contact him at rtoscano@pcasd.com.

Recent Nerd's Eye View Posts

So Much for That Housing Shortage (October 20)

Home Prices Still Declining (October 18)

A Wrench in the EZ-Credit Works (October 6)

Rates On the Decline (October 5)

Declining Home Inventory (October 3)

Part Precision, Part Luck (October 2)

A Year Or Two? (September 27)

Amaranth versus a CD (September 25)

Hedge Funds (September 25)

*Investment advisory services and securities offered through Girard Securities, Inc., member SIPC/FINRA.

This Just In

Study: No Significant Harm from MB Landfill:

The report commissioned in 2002 to study the effects of the old Mission Bay landfill on the area nearby is complete. No significant contamination has flown into the bay, the report said.

Friday, October 20 -- 8:08 pm

Peters: I'll hear NBC appeal:

The council president said he would hear an appeal of the city staff's decision that the environmental study for the Navy Broadway Complex suffices, but has not received any documents requesting a hearing.

Friday, October 20 -- 8:09 pm

SDCERS Tweaks Deficit Calculations:

The retirement system's invoice for the city next year will include payment for benefits that were not accounted for in past bills.

Friday, October 20 -- 3:35 pm

Profit or Loss :

Are home sellers who won't reduce prices forgetting how much they paid for their homes in the first place?

Friday, October 20 -- 3:27 pm

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Prop A Should Fail on Election Day:

Friday, October 20 -- 5:14 pm

CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

Agree and Disagree :

A real reform should have targeted corruption head on.

Wednesday, October 18 -- 5:39 pm

COMMENTARY: SLOP

Let's Hire That Guy :

An English investor saw Amaranth for what it was and got out -- right before the county pension got in.

Friday, October 20 -- 5:58 pm

COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

So Much for That Housing Shortage :

Supply of for-sale San Diego housing continues to outstrip demand.

Friday, October 20 -- 3:46 pm

'The Powers to Be':

A little recognition. » Nov. 21 -- 4:03 pm

Libraries Could Be Spared:

It doesn't look like the mayor has the City Council votes to shut down libraries and rec centers.

Nov. 21 -- 2:02 pm

Opening Day Melee:

The first day a store opens, shoplifters have a field day.

Nov. 21 -- 11:43 am

SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.8 Percent:

Retail and construction sectors lose a combined 10,000 jobs over the year in San Diego County.

Nov. 21 -- 5:43 pm