voiceofsandiego.org: Toscano... The Dumb Money
an independent nonprofit |
We depend on your donations. Consider joining us today.

The Dumb Money



One argument I hear a lot is that foreign demand for local real estate has grown substantially in recent years, and that such foreign demand will be supportive of prices in the future.

Unfortunately, this argument puts the cart squarely in front of the horse. Investors from other countries are well known to be the very last participants to arrive at the scene of a financial bubble. They are the last to hear about all the riches to be made, the last to buy in, and the last to realize that the party is over.

The chart to the right provides an example from the history of bubbles past. The blue line represents the price of the Nasdaq Composite Index during its late-1990s flight to the heavens, along with the very beginning of its eventual journey back to earth. The red line denotes the dollar amount of U.S. stock purchases made by foreign investors.

It can easily be seen that foreign buyers chased the U.S. tech stock bubble all the way to the tippy top, and that they lagged prices the entire way. The final onslaught of foreign cash did not even hit our shores until after the Nasdaq had begun to decline from its final peak.

Far from being a positive fundamental, a sudden excess of foreign participation in an asset market is indicative of ill-informed speculative money at work. When the foreigners really start piling on, it's always a good sign that the end of the bubble is nigh.

-- RICH TOSCANO



A Nerd's Eye View

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*;
he also writes about San Diego real estate at Piggington's Econo-Almanac.
Contact him at rtoscano@pcasd.com.

Getting Flexible on Bay Front:

 

LS Power spokesman says his company 'will consider' whatever the Chula Vista council wants.

Monday, January 22 -- 6:06 pm

Aguirre's Objection Denied:

 

The city attorney said his next step in his pension challenge is in appeals court.

Monday, January 22 -- 5:06 pm

Mexico Drug War Perspective:

 

A broad look at whether the Mexican drug crackdown is meaningful.

Monday, January 22 -- 3:01 pm


Sponsored By

MOST POPULAR STORIES:

SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

What's In an Adjective? :

 

Some suggested descriptors of downtown La Mesa.

Monday, January 22 -- 4:25 pm

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Give Us the Facts:

 

Monday, January 22 -- 2:10 pm

CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

A Reader's Good Catch :

 

Clearing up my last post.

Monday, January 22 -- 5:09 pm

COMMENTARY: SLOP

LT in the Dreamy Stadium :

 

A technical point and an alert observation.

Monday, January 22 -- 6:07 pm

COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

January Mortgage Rate Update :

 

Rates are on the rise, for the time being.

Friday, January 19 -- 11:43 am

Sponsored by

This Just In

'The Powers to Be':

 A little recognition. » Nov. 21 -- 4:03 pm



Libraries Could Be Spared:

 It doesn't look like the mayor has the City Council votes to shut down libraries and rec centers.

Nov. 21 -- 2:02 pm


Opening Day Melee:

 The first day a store opens, shoplifters have a field day.

Nov. 21 -- 11:43 am


SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.8 Percent:

 Retail and construction sectors lose a combined 10,000 jobs over the year in San Diego County.

Nov. 21 -- 5:43 pm



LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Where's the Beef?:

 Time to pony up.

Nov. 20 -- 7:20 pm



CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

Holslin Back:

 Follow up to your responses and questions.

Nov. 20 -- 7:07 pm



COMMENTARY: SLOP

Did Obama Deliver District 1?:

 It's not looking like he did.

Nov. 21 -- 4:50 pm



COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

Cheap Homes Selling Fast, Expensive Homes Not:

 Home sales have exploded in low-priced areas of San Diego even as they decline in pricier neighborhoods.

Nov. 20 -- 11:13 pm


Copyright © 2008 voiceofsandiego.org. All Rights Reserved.