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Mini-Rallies Aren't Meaningful
In my recent January home price data roundup, I included a graph of home prices during the early-1990s bust to illustrate that bouts of price strength were common even during a protracted downturn. A smart reader pointed out that mini-rallies were more than just common -- they were to be expected as part of the seasonal price cycle.
 With the exception of 1993, which was the most brutal year from a price perspective, the San Diego housing market experienced a brief rally every spring throughout the entire downturn. Every rebound probably provided a glimmer of hope that the bust was over, but in each case, prices went on to sink to new lows until the correction finally ended in 1996.
The lesson here is that because they tend to occur during bull and bear markets alike, spring home price rallies don't appear to have a whole lot of predictive value.
-- RICH TOSCANO
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The councilman was penalized for not paying campaign debts off in 90 days.
Thursday, March 8 -- 7:05 pm
Mayor Sanders could cut that much from the city's billion-dollar budget without the council if the compromise on budget authority is passed.
Thursday, March 8 -- 4:46 pm
What lessons we can learn from the San Diego-Tijuana coyote trade.
Thursday, March 8 -- 4:19 pm
SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO
A couple of bits to add, including the popularity (and foreclosure rate) of subprime loans nationwide.
Thursday, March 8 -- 5:40 pm
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Thursday, March 8 -- 10:59 am
CAFÉ SAN DIEGO
The predictions from The New York Times
Thursday, March 8 -- 4:42 pm
COMMENTARY: SLOP
The three San Diego legislators I talked to all changed their stances on the presidential primary. Why?
Thursday, March 8 -- 2:59 pm
COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO
The potential significance to San Diego of the ongoing meltdown in the mortgage industry can hardly be overstated.
Tuesday, March 6 -- 10:40 am
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This Just In
A little recognition. » Nov. 21 -- 4:03 pm
It doesn't look like the mayor has the City Council votes to shut down libraries and rec centers.
Nov. 21 -- 2:02 pm
The first day a store opens, shoplifters have a field day.
Nov. 21 -- 11:43 am
SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO
Retail and construction sectors lose a combined 10,000 jobs over the year in San Diego County.
Nov. 21 -- 5:43 pm
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Time to pony up.
Nov. 20 -- 7:20 pm
CAFÉ SAN DIEGO
Follow up to your responses and questions.
Nov. 20 -- 7:07 pm
COMMENTARY: SLOP
It's not looking like he did.
Nov. 21 -- 4:50 pm
COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO
Home sales have exploded in low-priced areas of San Diego even as they decline in pricier neighborhoods.
Nov. 20 -- 11:13 pm
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