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December Housing Supply and Demand



Existing home sales continued to languish in December, down 3.5 percent from November and 36.6 percent from a year prior.

Resale inventory was down 6.6 percent for the month, following the typical seasonal pattern, but remained 16.9 percent above year-ago levels.

Putting the two figures together, there were about 12 months' worth of resale inventory sitting on the market. This level of inventory, as the accompanying graph shows, is about the same as in recent months but is substantially worse than it was earlier in the year or for that matter at any time during the bust to date.

A rule of thumb I've heard many times, most recently on the always insightful Calculated Risk blog, is that 6 months of inventory is about normal and that anything above 8 months will put downward pressure on home prices. The rule doesn't address what happens at 12 months of inventory.

-- RICH TOSCANO



A Nerd's Eye View

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*;
he also writes about San Diego real estate at Piggington's Econo-Almanac.
Contact him at rtoscano@pcasd.com.

Get Your Water Rebate:

 

City offering rebate to residents who install smart irrigation controllers.

Friday, January 25 -- 4:51 pm

Sex Education Waits on Funding:

 

Grant due to expire next month.

Friday, January 25 -- 2:36 pm

Early College in the Works:

 

Partnership between San Diego City College and public schools slated for fall.

Friday, January 25 -- 2:30 pm


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SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

Homeless Count Rained Out :

 

Tomorrow's annual population tally postponed.

Thursday, January 24 -- 7:13 pm

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Xeriscaping? :

 

It seems "conservation" gets a lot of lip service from some of your local politicians and not much else.

Friday, January 25 -- 2:24 pm

CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

It Is Very Expensive to be Poor :

 

(or a little short on cash).

Friday, January 25 -- 12:10 pm

COMMENTARY: SLOP

Goldsmith: Kill Brian's Bucks :

 

The wars in the city attorney's race begin, with Mike Aguirre nowhere near the shots.

Thursday, January 24 -- 7:15 pm

COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

BailoutWatch: Lower Rates for Everyone! :

 

The federal government advances its efforts to keep homes unaffordable.

Friday, January 25 -- 1:47 pm

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This Just In

Get Your Water Rebate:

 City offering rebate to residents who install smart irrigation controllers. » Jan. 25 -- 4:51 pm



Sex Education Waits on Funding:

 Grant due to expire next month.

Jan. 25 -- 2:36 pm


Early College in the Works:

 Partnership between San Diego City College and public schools slated for fall.

Jan. 25 -- 2:30 pm


MOST POPULAR STORIES:

SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO

Homeless Count Rained Out :

  Tomorrow's annual population tally postponed.

Jan. 24 -- 7:13 pm



LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Xeriscaping? :

  It seems "conservation" gets a lot of lip service from some of your local politicians and not much else.

Jan. 25 -- 2:24 pm



CAFÉ SAN DIEGO

It Is Very Expensive to be Poor :

  (or a little short on cash).

Jan. 25 -- 12:10 pm



COMMENTARY: SLOP

Goldsmith: Kill Brian's Bucks :

  The wars in the city attorney's race begin, with Mike Aguirre nowhere near the shots.

Jan. 24 -- 7:15 pm



COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO

BailoutWatch: Lower Rates for Everyone! :

  The federal government advances its efforts to keep homes unaffordable.

Jan. 25 -- 1:47 pm


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