Turnout Reigns

Published: Tuesday, June 3, 2008 1:11 PM PDT

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A friend (you remember young genius Vladimir Kogan don't you?) had a great response to the turnout hypothesis I put forth other day:

- The only people voting today are people that actually care about their candidates (i.e., not the low-information voters). This would only hurt Francis if we believed that Sanders has more hard-core committed voters, which is not what his fundraising figures indicate. On this criteria alone, there is not necessarily reason to think Francis will be hurt.

- If there's low turnout, it amplifies the effects of organized get-out-and-vote efforts -- which bring out people who wouldn't normally vote. And who excels at this? Labor unions. And who are the unions backing? Those that endorsed are backing Francis. So on this criteria, Francis actually stands to benefit.

On point one: I'd say it's pretty hard to determine who has the more "hardcore" supporters between those two candidates. My point was that Francis' relentless television ads would do a lot to sway those "low-information" voters. That's the whole point of television ads, no? But Vlad makes a good point: Sanders' lackluster fundraising was shocking.

On point two: I think Vlad's correct about the assumptions underlying it. But does Francis have the kind of phone-banking, hard-charging, district-walking, passionate get-out-the-vote union support that does make a difference? Or does he have the cerebral, effortless, wanting-to-stand-on-this-side-of-history union support?

Only a few hours until we find out.

-- SCOTT LEWIS

6 Comments so far on this story...

I don't think Francis' union support is real. It's people at the union's top flipping Sanders the bird, not the kind of passionate force that that drives people to the polls like if Donna Frye were in the race. No one in the unions can take seriously his sudden, unexplained labor-friendliness after his '05 campaign and financial backing of Prop. C '06 (managed competition). I think this primary favors both the political junkies and the voter who just votes because that's "just what you do" in an election. The political junkies see right through Francis. Even those who aren't impressed with Sanders still can't stomach Mr. Phony Face. The people who just vote maybe skew conservative, and Francis' bizarre leftward shift won't help with them either.

Posted by Union, Schmunion | reply to this comment
June 3, 2008 12:53 pm

Union, Schmunion, I don't argue that unions will bring out voters for Francis. I think they'll bring out voters for other campaigns (i.e. for Marti), and once those voters are at the polls, are they more likely to choose Sanders or Francis?

Posted by Vlad | reply to this comment
June 3, 2008 3:41 pm

Jeez Scott. On Saturday the Voice slams Jerry for raising boatloads of cash from people who do business with the City (which turns out to be a whopping 2.5% of the total amount he raised). Then today you slam him for 'lackluster fundraising' that was so pathetic it was 'shocking'. Meanwhile the poor guy has to compete against a rich guy who whips out his checkbook when he wants some more TV airtime, is spending 5 to 10 times as much as Jerry, and gets to claim he's 'independent' because he's rich enough to not have to ask for money from the dirty public. Can't a mayor get a break?

Posted by Simple Guy | reply to this comment
June 3, 2008 3:42 pm

To "Union, Schmunion"...True, I refused to even consider Francis last time around. But Sanders has dumped on city employees so much, he has become an obstructionist just like Aguirre. Sanders "negotiated" with the unions with the intention of reaching impasse with the deputy city attorneys, MEA, and 127. Then he planned for the City Council to impose his last, best, and final offer on everyone as a political tool to gain re-election. Why can't he look San Diego citizens in the face and say "it's necessary to raise taxes" like Donna Frye has said? I guess honesty isn't Sanders' forte. San Diego is full of freeloaders; if they want a free lunch, go somewhere else. It's time to PAY for services and quit expecting San Diego City Employees to live on peanuts just because the management can't manage their way out of a paper bag.

Posted by Cheeky | reply to this comment
June 3, 2008 6:22 pm

Interesting. I guess you guys were just not in step with the rest of the city. Can you say "Mandate"?

Posted by Algernon Sidney | reply to this comment
June 4, 2008 12:01 am

So much for the turnout theory. Reprinting my response from May 27: "Scott is a lucid writer, but his thinking is flawed here. First, any "burgeoning support" (dream on) for Morrow or Bidwell would come from Francis voters, not Sanders voters, so that point is moot. Second, Francis' ads are not well made, they are merely prolific--$4 million worth of test patterns saying "Vote for Francis" would do essentially the same trick. The ads are a tactical mistake, turning Francis into a reedy voiced bad actor, not a leader of substance. Third, Francis won't overcome the flip-flop issue. The voters aren't stupid, and recent events like the AG's Sunroad report and the city's restored credit rating will derail the Stevie Express. Sanders wins June 3, and it's not that close."

Posted by Observer | reply to this comment
June 4, 2008 12:14 am

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