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The R-Word

Published: Friday, August 8, 2008 8:05 AM PDT



Let's get something straight. I really like talking with Kelly Cunningham and always have since he was an economist at the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce. In fact, that group hasn't done much of anything of any worth since Cunningham and others left it a few years ago.

Cunningham is a smart analyst and a resource to the community. And if Steve Francis' San Diego Institute for Policy Research has done anything right, it's provide Cunningham a regular forum.

That said, here was Kelly Cunningham in his "Economic Ledger" released in February:

Local blogs and electronic news sites daily point to the softened real estate market as a sign that the sky is falling and that we can brace for a significant downturn.

We take a contrarian view.

While the nation and state may be in or going into recession, San Diego’s employment numbers do not suggest the local region has or soon will go into recession.

Hmm... Electronic news sites? To whom could he have been referring I wonder? One thing about us electronic types, we know how to archive.

Now, Cunningham has changed his tune.

Here was his quote today in Kelly Bennett's story:

"San Diego went through the (national) recession of 2001 without actually going into recession -- we never had negative job growth," said Kelly Cunningham, economist at the San Diego Institute for Policy Research, a conservative think tank. "I was thinking maybe we could get through this similarly but this time it doesn't seem to be the case."

That Cunningham is now embracing the view that the real estate downturn is so severe that it will destroy jobs in industries to which it is only tenuously connected is not something necessarily to celebrate. Yes, it's what thinkers like Rich Toscano warned about starting years ago. But I would have preferred to be wrong.

If the housing market's implosion indeed is causing so many widespread economic problems that reverberate to all kinds of industries and employers, this is nothing to be happy about.

As Toscano and others ably demonstrate, the housing market still has a long way to go in this correction.

It will soon be time for everyone to recognize just how widespread the consequences of that might be.

-- SCOTT LEWIS




9 Comments so far on this story...

"Yes, it's what thinkers like Rich Toscano warned about starting years ago." Really 2005 and before - Reference please.

Posted by Gregory | reply to this comment
August 8, 2008 9:42 am

Hi Gregory, I'm not sure when Rich started writing but I started reading him in 2003. Here was the first profile on him I could find. Click on this link . Hope that helps.

Posted by Scott Lewis | reply to this comment
August 8, 2008 10:30 am

'Really 2005 and before - Reference please.' Gregory, there's this new website called Google. You should try it some time.

Posted by bill | reply to this comment
August 8, 2008 11:31 am

I thought there was some data and sources listed in an articles written (years ago) which showed a clear "Warning." I found nothing supporting that statement, but I am sure Bill was convinced. Opinion is opinion little more. Kind of like what happened last year at a CNC meeting, a young man presented to the water department and CNC general membership that Lake Meed and Lake Powell were down to 45 and 50 percent of capacity and that the desert suffered from an extreme water condition…. Guess what the people representing the City's Water Department said, they said “Sir we do not agree with that data” and that was enough to kill the discussion - for their opinion had more worth than presented data which was created by objective research of a subject.

Posted by Gregory | reply to this comment
August 8, 2008 5:59 pm

From Rich's blog: "I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market."

Posted by KirkH | reply to this comment
August 10, 2008 8:34 pm

Kelly C. has been the go to guy in San Diego for economic reporting for the last decade. I think his ability to rise above the nonsense at SDI has been amazing. I would have a hard time justifying hiring anyone from SDI except for Kelly C. Two bit political hacks and wanna bees.

Posted by SDI Who? | reply to this comment
August 11, 2008 2:33 pm

Here's one found pretty quickly from late 06. link That's google.com, Gregory, give it a try. It's amazing that you would accuse people of lying before even bothering to do a simple search, which would have quickly shown you are wrong.

Posted by bill | reply to this comment
August 11, 2008 4:39 pm

How stuck in last century economic thinking can a group be? It's not a housing bubble but conditions which (as green-spam suggested) we ‘made-up for short falls in earned wage incomes by taking the equities out of our homes.’ Its that we ALL (governmental [national, state, city and private] structures included) have reached the end of our ability to gain new debt while maintaining the credit maintenance payments on our old debt. The disparity between earned wage incomes and the cost of living has long ago reached a point at which even the most middle-income amongst us have been forced to take on ever-greater amounts of debt. National debt quadrupled in the last eight years, California State debt - growing faster than ever, San Diego City Debt – unknown.) The reason this is ‘worse’ than ever before is that there is NO reseserve wealth of workers 'Savings'

Posted by Gregory | reply to this comment
August 19, 2008 10:01 pm

The reason this is ‘worse’ than ever before is that there is no reserve wealth for the workers of the United States to fall back-upon. Negative Savings rates in America for the last few years for the first time sense the Great Depression…. The ‘Housing Bubble’ was an attributes of the condition – not the defining economic malady. Global Labor Wage Scales must equalize (to a comparable point) because labor markets are now global sources of production not localized. As the US labor markets reach equilibrium with what some people called, ‘the third world’ US workers will see continuations of their realizable earned wage incomes and total compensations levels. People have been asking the city to allow for community gardens not so that they can dig in the dirt but so we can feed ourselves and our brothers and sisters in the hungry days soon to come.

Posted by Gregory | reply to this comment
August 19, 2008 10:16 pm


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Scott Lewis on Politics

The Scott Lewis on Politics blog, abbreviated cleverly as SLOP, is a collection of observations, insights and the occasional scoop on public affairs in San Diego. Please feel free to e-mail Scott at scott.lewis@voiceofsandiego.org.

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