SD Home Prices Went Up in June

Published: Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:01 AM PDT

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Home prices in San Diego bumped up slightly in June compared to May, according to the new Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released this morning.

This time, even a version of the index designed to take normal seasonal changes into account (remember our issues with these data last month?) shows a 0.7 percent bump up in prices when comparing June to May. The regular, non-adjusted version of the index rose 1.6 percent over the same time.

Prices are still down significantly compared to June 2008. But the amount by which they're down year-over-year has been shrinking for a few months. (I know, that's a confusing concept. They're still falling, but falling by a smaller amount each month.)

The index as a whole fell 16 percent between June 2008 and June 2009 -- the smallest year-over-year drop since January 2008.

And from the market peak in November 2005, prices were down 41.2 percent, an improvement from the last two months, when the plunge from the peak had been about 42 percent.

Here's the breakdown by price:

Low tier (homes priced under $269,406): down 21.2 percent year-over-year, down 52.6 percent from June 2006 peak.

Middle tier (homes priced between $269,406 and $406,565): down 13 percent year-over-year, down 40.2 percent from November 2005 peak.

High tier (homes priced higher than $406,565): down 14.7 percent year-over-year, down 31.2 percent from June 2006 peak.

Comparing May to June in the seasonally adjusted version of the index, the low tier fell 0.04 percent but the other two tiers rose: the middle tier by 0.87 percent and the high tier by 0.18 percent.

National home prices, a composite version of the index, showed the first quarterly improvement in three years. From the firm's press release:

"For the second month in a row, we're seeing some positive signs," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "As seen in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, as well as the charts, there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. However, some of the hardest hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness."

I'll have more on these data later today. Anything you want me to be asking as I chat with housing folks today? Leave a comment below. (If you're not reading this in Survival in San Diego, then go there to make comments.)

-- KELLY BENNETT

5 Comments so far on this story...

Kelly, Yesterday I was curious to see the percentage of active listings with price reductions in the luxury market compared with lower priced markets. As I continue to say, San Diego real estate is clearly two different markets, while the lower priced homes are in short supply and selling close or above asking prices, the market about $500,000 continues to be sluggish with continued downward pressure on prices. Looking at active listings gives us a more accurate view of what is happening today. In the four luxury markets that I compared, Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, Coronado, and La Jolla the percentage of price reductions on active listings was 36% or above. In comparison a chart of lower priced markets clearly shows a downward trend in price reductions. Here is a link to the charts: link

Posted by Jeffrey Douglass | reply to this comment
August 25, 2009 7:36 am

The statement in the article, "They're still falling, but falling by a smaller amount each month," is misleading. They ROSE month-to-month (NOT "still falling"), and thus the year-over-year decrease is NARROWING. If prices stayed exactly unchanged for a whole year, the year-over-year comparison would still show a drop for about 10-12 months, and then would switch to "no change." The two metrics are different and reflect different periods of change. Be careful how you interpret them. BTW, my comment should not be interpreted as a prediction of where prices are headed, just a critique of a misleading statement in the article.

Posted by Hillcrester | reply to this comment
August 25, 2009 7:51 am

Thanks, Hillcrester. You're right: the year-over-year changes are narrowing, and the month-to-month price comparison was positive in June. Prices are still negative by the first metric, and positive by the second. I certainly didn't mean to mislead anyone.

Posted by Kelly Bennett | reply to this comment
August 25, 2009 8:06 am

Is this San Diego City only ? Because I looked up 3 prices at 3 different "Home Values" web sites, and they say that these Homes in El Cajon and a Condo/Townhouse Chula Vista went down, -$5,000.

Posted by DADSGETNDOWN | reply to this comment
August 25, 2009 8:41 am

With the banks' shadow inventory of homes either not being released for sale or not being foreclosed upon in a timely manner, I'm curious about the effect this additional supply will have upon prices once those houses are back in the public's hands (versus being artificially held off the market by the lenders). Prices in general are still way too high for a region that saw 150% price gains. A 50% decline from the peak is a step in the right direction, but it's still too soon to call a bottom for San Diego County.

Posted by Wangenstein | reply to this comment
August 25, 2009 11:42 am

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