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A couple of days ago, I blogged about the Forbes story, “How Low Will Real Estate Go?”

I meant to mention that if you check out that story, make sure to click on the “In Pictures: How Low Real Estate Will Go in 15 Metro Areas” feature, a collection of graphs showing forecast data put out by Moody’s Economy.com. The data reflects historical and current median prices and forecasts future trends in existing single-family homes in cities like Atlanta, New York City, Los Angeles and San Diego.

I’ve included the San Diego graph to the right. The red line indicates the national median price trend, and the blue line indicates the San Diego forecast – $856,067 in second quarter 2016. The area examined also includes Carlsbad and San Marcos.

Here’s a quote from the Forbes story describing how the economists worked out their forecast:

The company bases its forecasts on an econometric model that looks at the relationship between prices and various factors that have historically driven supply and demand in these markets. The intricate formula was proved to work when compared with actual house-price performance through the early 1990s, a period when home prices rose and then fell sharply.

KELLY BENNETT

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