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Political prognosticators are rethinking their take on the race for California’s 50th Congressional District.

Earlier this week Congressional Quarterly, a publication dedicated to all things Congress, downgraded the race between Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray from “Republican favored” to the less certain “leans Republican.”

In a related article, CQ cited many factors for the change including recent polling data that shows the race narrowing as well as financial reports that show Busby had more cash on hand than Bilbray as of September.

The article also indicates that a relatively uncompetitive gubernatorial race in California and low morale amongst Republicans after a series of congressional scandals may keep conservative voters who are critical to a Bilbray win away from the polls.

The publication’s rating change comes two weeks after The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan election analysis newsletter, downgraded the 50th District from a Republican safe seat to “likely Republican.”

DANIEL STRUMPF

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