Alan Nevin, chief economist with the California Building Industry Association and noted San Diego real estate optimist released his 2008 outlook today for the CBIA.

Despite the year we’ve had, and despite the continued trouble many economists are expecting for 2008, here’s how Nevin starts out:

I think that I am going to go out on a limb and take a very contrarian view of 2008. Most of the forecasts I have reviewed anticipate no start of an economic recovery until late 2008 or early 2009, especially in California. My crystal ball has a slightly more optimistic scenario.

(For those of you who like to track these pundits over time, here’s a link to my post when this outlook came out in 2007, forecasting the region’s builders would go into “slowdown mode” last year. I’d say that came a bit more than true.)

In the San Diego County section of the report, on page 9, Nevin subtly acknowledges some trouble in the local market — condo developers canceling their projects — in this note:

In 2008, we do anticipate more than 4,000 multi-family units to be constructed, largely the result of apartment developers acquiring sites once destined for condominium development.


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