We’re live at Election Central. Here are three things to think about right before the results come in around 8 p.m.:

• Early results on absentee ballots could seal the deal for Proposition D, the city of San Diego’s sales tax/financial reform ballot measure. Yes on D strategist Tom Shepard told me he expected Prop. D to gain support throughout the night.

“My theory right now is if we are at 50 percent or better on absentees, we will have a very good chance,” said Tom Shepard, Yes on D’s campaign strategist, before the results came in.

Shepard said his campaign’s television advertisements didn’t reach the majority of city voters until after the county registrar had mailed out the first ballots.

• Shepard did say he expected the race to be close regardless.

But he believed his campaign could have done better, especially in fundraising. Shepard expected the campaign to have raised about $600,000 once all is said and done. That’s just more than the amount raised this summer for the campaign to make the city’s strong-mayor form of government permanent. That campaign had no funded opposition and wasn’t a tax increase.

“When you’re seeking a yes vote, you’ve got a heavy burden,” Shepard said. “When it’s a tax increase, it’s even heavier.”

In the end, the Yes campaign had two weeks of a television advertisement and sent one piece of campaign mail.

“It’s not enough,” Shepard said. “We may end up winning, but it won’t be because we had a lot of money.”

• In the meantime, No on D spokesman Tony Manolatos said he believed the race was going to be close, too.

Not so, said local Republican Party Chairman and Prop. D antagonist Tony Krvaric. Krvaric was convinced Prop. D was going to lose. He spent the day in the city’s District 6 along with other No on Ders campaigning for Republican council candidate Lorie Zapf. Krvaric said he expected the Zapf race against Democrat Howard Wayne to be closer than Prop. D.

Evan McLaughlin, political director for the San Diego-Imperial Counties Labor Council and a Wayne supporter, tweeted earlier today that the Zapf-Wayne election would be decided by “a field goal.”

First election results, most of the absentee ballots, are expected between 8:02 and 8:05 p.m. Gotta love the county Registrar of Voters’ precision.

Please contact Liam Dillon directly at liam.dillon@voiceofsandiego.org or 619.550.5663 and follow him on Twitter: twitter.com/dillonliam.

Liam Dillon was formerly a senior reporter and assistant editor for Voice of San Diego. He led VOSD’s investigations and wrote about how regular people...

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