Today’s release of the Case-Shiller home price index showed a small (.2 percent) aggregate price increase in May for San Diego:
However, the seasonally-adjusted version of the index — which modifies the index levels to compensate for seasonal influences on home prices — shows that, absent the upward price pressure that is typical of springtime, prices would actually have gone down:
If the very clear downtrend visible in that second graph continues, then actual Case-Shiller price weakness should emerge once the “spring bounce” has passed.
I’ll spare you the long-term graphs this month in favor of a couple charts on last month’s resale data. The Case-Shiller index is the most accurate available measure of home prices, but lags by a couple of months, so it’s also instructive to use resale price data to get an idea of more recent happenings.
June’s resale data was also supportive of the price weakness theme, as the aggregate median price per square foot dropped by .4 percent for the month:
The bright spot in the June data was that months of inventory remained at a fairly healthy level:
While prices could continue to trend slightly downward, this ratio of supply to demand likely precludes any serious price declines in the near future.
Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*. He can be contacted at rtoscano@pcasd.com.