Peters Takes the Lead, and It’s All Trending His Way

Scott Peters is now is in the driver’s seat.

The Democratic congressman pulled ahead for the first time Thursday afternoon in the 52nd District congressional race against Republican Carl DeMaio. After the first post-Election Day ballots were counted Thursday, Peters has an 861 vote lead.

So is it over? No, but many prognosticators now believe Peters is the heavy favorite.

DeMaio had about a 2,000-vote lead when the first results came in Tuesday night. That count represented mail ballots the San Diego County Registrar of Voters had received prior to Election Day. But the trend has drifted toward Peters since then. Voters at the polls favored Peters, and DeMaio’s lead shrunk to 700 in the most recent total before the Thursday update. The new numbers released Thursday represented mail ballots returned at drop-off sites and others turned in on or around Election Day, and they favored Peters decisively, by 56 percent.

There are still about 28,000 votes left to count in the district, with a large number coming Friday and the process perhaps wrapped on Saturday. Republican pollster John Nienstedt now projects Peters will win.

@CompetitivEdge estimates DeMaio needs 51.3% of the remaining vote to win in desperately close #CA52 .

— John Nienstedt (@CompetitivEdge) November 7, 2014

@CompetitivEdge also estimates based on current trend final result will be Peters 51.3% in desperately close #CA52 .

— John Nienstedt (@CompetitivEdge) November 7, 2014

Peters partisans, such as former Bob Filner Chief of Staff Vince Hall, were calling the race.

Congratulations to @RepScottPeters on your reelection to a second term! #CA52

— Vince Hall (@vincehall) November 7, 2014

But DeMaio himself is still holding out hope.

UPDATE – there are roughly 28,000 absentee ballots left to count. If we win by same margin as AV votes, we retake the lead.

— Carl DeMaio (@carldemaio) November 7, 2014