For over two decades, California’s public school enrollment has been on a decline. After peaking at 6.4 million in 2004, enrollment tumbled all the way down to 5.8 million in 2023, fueled in part by a significant pandemic-era uptick in the rate of enrollment decline. Between 2015 and 2023 alone, the state lost nearly 390,000 students, or about 6 percent of enrollment.
San Diego Unified, the second-largest district in California, has fared even worse. Over the same period, the district lost more than 11,300 students, or about 10.5 percent of its total enrollment.
As KPBS recently reported, at a recent budget workshop, district leaders announced they’re projecting to lose even more students in the coming year. According to figures included in a budget presentation, the district projects it will lose 741 students between the current school year and the next. If those numbers prove true it will mean the district has lost 12,500 students, or about 11.6 percent of its total enrollment, over the past decade.
Luckily for district leaders, the declines have slowed in recent years from a high of 3,165 between the 2019 to 2020 school years. But unluckily it doesn’t seem there are a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic that the trend will reverse course.
For one, the district was already reaping the benefits of the launch of universal transitional kindergarten, a new grade for 4-year-olds that injected an entirely new group of students into the district. That new group of students blunted the larger trend of enrollment decline, but the declines still kept coming, and there are no longer any new groups of students waiting in the wings.
Secondly, the larger demographic trends are still moving the wrong way. Birth rates continue to decline, and when people have fewer kids there are simply fewer kids to fill schools.
Lastly, places like San Diego, where the cost of living is prohibitively high, have been particularly hard hit by enrollment declines and population dips. Between 2022 and 2023, for example, nearly 31,000 people moved out of San Diego County. That was the county’s largest outflow in three decades, save for the first year of the pandemic.
During a recent interview on the VOSD Podcast, Board President Cody Petterson, who represents sub-district C, said similar cost of living patterns are playing out within the district.
“You can see it in my sub-district, which is the coast. It’s fairly affluent – Point Loma, Mission Bay, La Jolla and University City. I have 13,000 resident students,” Petterson said.
Trustee Richard Barrera, who represents central-southern San Diego neighborhoods like North Park, Barrio Logan and parts of City Heights, has 31,00 resident students. Those disparities in the number of school-aged kids living in each sub-district exist despite the fact that both sub-districts have similar total populations.
“There’s just no kids. It’s very difficult … young families can’t afford to live there,” Petterson said.
San Diego Unified’s elevated rate of enrollment decline in comparison with the state level also stands in stark contrast to what the county as a whole has seen. From 2015 to 2023, the county saw a 5.2 percent decline in enrollment. That’s not only less than the state’s rate of enrollment decline over that same period, it’s less than the rate San Diego Unified saw.
That’s a big problem because the more students San Diego Unified loses, the less funding it gets – and the district is already strapped with a $112 million deficit. It’s also perplexing because despite the well-publicized scandals the district has weathered, its students have performed fairly well over the years, at least compared to state and national averages.
Ultimately, San Diego Unified’s enrollment dilemma may be partly because, compared to other areas in the county and state, the entire city of San Diego is like Petterson’s sub-district C – unaffordable to young families.
As a parent with 2 graduated and 1 still in, affordability is just 1 of the reasons. The other side of the coin of affordability is if you can afford to live here, you can afford private school. Also, parents are growing increasingly tired of terrible policies and curriculum with SDUSD and turning towards charter schools who are in my opinion more transparent and flexible in that regard.
Going back to Basics and getting rid of all that fluffy art/dance/etc. stuff would probably be a good start in getting this ship pointed in the right direction.
Bro, do you want fluffy stuff, or kids stabbing each other? The art, the motivation, the ability to teach and express keeps the knives and guns away. We about to get VERY fluffy.
Yea, and how are they supposed to live after they graduate?? “Fluffy” doesn’t pay the bills.
Note to the school unions, when your district is losing students and having to close schools, you will NOT be getting a raise. Econ 101.
Keep pushing poison culture instead of math and reading. The job cuts are coming soon.
Superintendent Terry Grier realized the trend and wanted to close schools with 200 students or less. The school board and SDEA did not support this idea. SDUSD remains in denial.
I believe that this article neglects to report on the MAGA drive to both privatize education and force religion (Christianity, unsurprisingly) into it. Simultaneously, Musk and his minions will destroy the Department of Ed at Trump’s bidding, and developments in AI will deliver the death-blow to public education within 5-10 years. Just sayin’. It’s not only the cost of living in California.
Gen. Ed. student population is in decline while the Spec. Ed. student population is increasing and not just because of the Gen. Ed. decline. Over identification is contributing to the increase. This is an untenable scenario.
I have worked at a few districts in San Diego County ,but not SUSD specifically. In my experience too much waste from the top down, most district superintendent’s are full of themselves and on a power trip. No superintendent should be making 300k and teachers have to work like 10 years to reach 85k in one of the most costly places to live. I’ve experienced corruption and literally stealing by administrators and when it’s reported it gets swept under the rug. The district wants to save face , it’s reputation or does not want the microscope turned on them. I have had two amazing female principles who really worked hard to make sure students do not fall through the cracks. The system is broken and when schools go woke , they go broke, like SUSD. Yes, people want to put there kids in charter and private schools because they are focused on actual learning, not all this other nonsense. Stop blaming MAGA, if there was more competition, then schools would have incentives to do better. Parents should have the freedom to put their kids at the best schools, or schools that fit their intersts / learning style, no matter where they live. And yes I worked at two low- income low -performing schools, where said embezzlement was happening. So stop blaming, maybe offer solutions, education needs an overhall period. Furthermore learning is not one size fits all. Another reason why offering schools where different types of learning and focuses, would do well with the competitve model. GARNDERS MULTIPE INTELLIGENCE THEORY is my favorite. Plus, yes, the arts, music, wood shop, different types of PE are critical for students in order to achieve success. Kids need a creative outlets.
To the extent that parents are choosing not to send their children to San Diego Unified because the District is not meeting the needs of students, that is a problem that needs to be addressed. However, declining enrollment if due to demographics and not as a result of students fleeing the District is not necessarily a bad thing. A district as large as San Diego Unified has proved very challenging to manage, resulting in persistent structural budget deficits and administrative missteps. Downsizing in the form of reduced student enrollment could result in positive outcomes for students if handled well. Fewer students require fewer teachers and staff. This provides an opportunity to ensure that only the best, most effective teachers are retained. Of course, this would require negotiations with the union, but the Board should demand that students’ best interests are primary when making decisions around layoffs. Closing underperforming schools and streamlining operations could improve efficiency. Research suggests that smaller school systems are often easier to manage and more responsive to student needs.
San Diego Unified has been in denial regarding annual declining enrollment for more than a decade, even creating an “enrollment” department to help “market” the district’s schools (at a cost of $1+ million per year) in a futile attempt to increase enrollment. While district leaders are still conjecturing on why enrollment decline is so high (such as denying that it could have anything to do with poor student outcomes or the district’s left-leaning policies), at least they have finally recognized that declining enrollment is an irreversible trend. Now, they need to start ACTING on that reality.