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Kentucky is a long way from San Diego but one House race there could be an early gauge of things to come in the election between Rep. Brian Bilbray and Francine Busby.

Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former GOP advisor, said that he’s keeping an eye on the race between Anne Northrup, the Republican incumbent, and John Yarmuth, the Democratic challenger, in Kentucky’s 3rd District.

The 3rd District has a democratic majority but Northrup has managed to hold the seat there since 1996, winning by 22 points in 2004.

“If she goes down then I think it’s a strong Democratic night, and that means the race in the 50th might be closer than … polls indicated,” Pitney said.

Yarmuth is currently leading that race with 50 percent of the vote to Northrup’s 49 percent, with 74 percent of precincts reporting according to CNN.

Political Consultant Tom Shepard said he’ll be watching two races in Connecticut and two in Indiana where Democratic candidates are close or leading the polls. Republicans hold a majority in all four of those districts.

“If the Democrats are sweeping in those districts then you might see something here too,” Shepard said.

In Indiana’s 2nd District, Democrat Joseph Donnelly has 59 percent of the vote and is beating Republican Rep. Chris Chocola, who has 41 percent with 26 percent of precincts reporting, according to CNN.

Democrat Baron Hill is beating Republican Rep. Michael Sodrel in Indiana’s 9th District. Hill has 50 percent compared to Sodrel’s 46 percent with 35 percent of the vote counted so far, according to CNN.

Republican Rep. Robert Simmons is facing a challenge by Democrat Joseph Courtney in Connecticut’s 2nd District while Republican Rep. Christopher Shays is defending his seat against Diane Farrell, a Democrat, in the state’s 4th District.

Results for the Connecticut races are not yet available.

DANIEL STRUMPF

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