The October Case-Shiller data was released last week.  It showed a mild decline in home prices, with the low and middle tiers down .6 percent from the prior month, the high tier down .2 percent, and the overall index also down .6 percent.

However, the seasonally-adjusted indices, which aim to back out the effects of seasonal influences on prices, were more mixed: the low and middle tiers were down .6 percent and .3 percent respectively, but the high tier was up .4 percent and the overall index was flat:

The above graphs show how home prices have changed since the post-crash trough that took place in early 2009.  The next one shows price changes since the bubble peak:

This graph takes the declining purchasing power of money into account and shows how inflation-adjusted prices have changed since the peak:

Here’s another graph of inflation-adjusted prices, going back to the beginning of the tiered data series:

As of October, real home prices (as measured by the inflation-adjusted aggregate Case-Shiller index) were the lowest they’d been since February 2001.

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*.  He can be contacted at

Rich Toscano has been observing the housing market for Voice of San Diego, with the occasional prolonged absence, since 2006. Follow him on Twitter at...

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