Republicans across the country went to bed Tuesday very pleased. Donald Trump is now just the second person to be elected president twice in non-consecutive elections. The U.S. Senate flipped to Republican control but control of the U.S. House was still too close to call.
It’s so close, a House race in North County may be the one to decide it. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin, a Democrat, held a small lead over his Republican challenger Matt Gunderson early Wednesday.
However much joy Republicans are experiencing, Trump’s success nationally may mean four more years, at least, of Republican struggles in San Diego County. In the biggest race in the region, County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer appears to have decisively beat her challenger, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican. And with that, an experienced, well-known Republican candidate with a major funding advantage lost to a Democrat in large part because of his support of Trump.
Locally, Mayor Todd Gloria and other Democrats did well, but tax measures they supported are still up in the air. A Democrat, Darshana Patel, appears to have kept the 76th Assembly seat in Democratic hands with a 5-point lead over Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane.
However, one Republican is about to be back, in a big way: Carl DeMaio. He handily disposed of rival Republican Andrew Hayes in the 75th Assembly District, whose support from elected Republicans, the Republican Party, Democrats, labor, police, fire fighters and so many others was not enough to beat DeMaio’s connections and supporters.
What happened: In our discussions with voters for our traditional Voices of the Voters features, one topic came up again and again: the cost of living and how painful it was. Across the country, that seems to be the major driver of the antipathy to the Biden-Harris administration that led to Trump’s victory.
And here, the 11 sales tax measures across the county – where voters had to decide whether to deliberately increase their cost of living – served as referendums on the agencies that would collect the taxes.
Some got major messages of support from their constituents. Others very much did not. We don’t know exactly how several went. We’ll have to wait days for the county to finish counting the votes.
County Likely Remains Under Dem Control
County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer’s definitive early lead Tuesday night suggests Democrats will retain control of the County Board of Supervisors.
At 1 a.m. Wednesday, Lawson-Remer was ahead of challenger and former Republican mayor Kevin Faulconer by more than 24,000 votes in District 3, which spans most of the county’s coastal communities.
Our Lisa Halverstadt reviewed what a Lawson-Remer’s likely victory means for the county.
One hint: Lawson-Remer is going to try to become chair of the Board of Supervisors. Current Chair Nora Vargas may not be into that.
Four More Years for Gloria
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria appears to have won re-election. As of the count at 1 a.m., he held a 10-point lead over challenger Larry Turner — a difference of more than 34,000 votes out of 346,590 counted.
It was certainly a relief for Gloria, known to sweat any bad news, and he’ll take it as a validation of his efforts on the city’s homelessness, cost-of-living and infrastructure crises.
Turner, a San Diego police officer, had only recently moved to the city but mounted a furious campaign to highlight the city’s ills and decline under Gloria. He tapped into neighbors’ angst about development in their neighborhood but most intensely focused on the suffering of homeless residents in the streets.
To oust an incumbent, though, you must prove to voters you deserve the job, which means they have to learn about you. That takes either significant celebrity or money or both. A last-minute infusion of nearly $1.7 million from a donor in Point Loma turned out to be too little, too late.
San Diego City Council Incumbents Hold; Ferbert Rolls
Council President Sean Elo-Rivera, who leads the Council’s progressive wing, will likely defeat his challenger Terry Hoskins, a retired police officer. As of 1:00 a.m., Elo-Rivera had 58 percent of the vote.
Councilmember Stephen Whitburn also appeared to cruise to re-election. He had 61 percent of the vote in a race against Coleen Cusack, a progressive attorney, who was an advocate against the city’s homeless encampment ban.
City Attorney: Turns out experience matters – or at least experience that gets you a good ballot title does. Heather Ferbert, a chief deputy city attorney, sailed past Assembly member Brian Maienschein in the race for San Diego City Attorney. Ferbert led Maienschein by around 12 points early Wednesday morning. Though the race divided councilmembers, Maienschein had the support of most labor unions, the mayor and the county’s Democratic party.
Some Cities Convinced Voters to Pay More Taxes
Several cities appear to have passed tax increases, but San Diego’s sales tax increase, Measure E, remains too close to call. As of 1 a.m., the county had “yes” at 49 percent of the vote – just more than 7,900 votes back out of more than 346,000 counted so far. With each count update, the yes side gained ground. All of San Diego’s City Councilmembers supported the proposed tax increase.
So far, it appears San Diegans are rejecting a countywide measure to raise the sales tax by half a cent to pay for transportation projects.
But as of 1 a.m., the vote was too close to call with 52 percent of voters casting ballots against Measure G, and 48 percent in favor – a difference of 37,388 out of nearly 900,000 votes counted.
It’s likely that the cities of Chula Vista, El Cajon, Oceanside and La Mesa convinced voters to extend existing sales tax increases in their cities. Sales tax increase proposals in at least two other cities are also leaning toward passing: Lemon Grove and San Marcos.
Escondido: Voters have passed a 1-percentage point increase to the sales tax rate in Escondido. The “yes” votes accounted for more than 58 percent of the votes counted as of 1 a.m. in Escondido.
Incumbents Trail in Encinitas and Oceanside Mayoral Races
Mayoral races in Encinitas and Oceanside were extremely close on Tuesday night with early results showing each race in a dead heat. At stake are competing visions for the future of housing development in both cities.
Encinitas: In Encinitas, incumbent Mayor Tony Kranz is facing City Councilmember Bruce Ehlers for the mayoral seat. Early results showed Ehlers leading Kranz by four points. Read more about that race here.
Oceanside: Incumbent Democratic Mayor Esther Sanchez is running against challenger Republican Ryan Keim, a councilmember and current deputy mayor.
The two have often been at odds, especially when it comes to housing.
Sanchez has advocated for more affordable housing projects, but she’s often the only councilmember opposed to big development projects, echoing residents’ concerns about increased traffic or changing community character.
Keim, on the other hand, has a more pro-growth stance and has acknowledged that state law requires him and the council to approve most housing projects.
Early results showed Keim leading by one point, but it’s still too close to call.
Carl DeMaio Leading in 75th Assembly Race
In the 75th Assembly District race, Republican Carl DeMaio has taken an early and wide lead over his opponent Republican Andrew Hayes.
DeMaio, a former San Diego city councilmember, is a controversial conservative figure in San Diego politics. His campaign was riddled with controversy and complaints of campaign finance violations.
He previously served one term on the San Diego City Council in 2008, then lost races for mayor in 2012 and for Congress in 2014 and 2020. He promised to reshape the entire California Republican Party.
San Diego Unified Board Incumbent Maintains Razor Thin Lead
The race between San Diego Unified incumbent Sabrina Bazzo and challenger Crystal Trull is razor tight. As of 1:00 a.m., the count showed Bazzo up by just 691 votes out of nearly 47,000 votes cast – 50.74 percent to Trull’s 49.26 percent. That could flip over coming days and would disrupt the San Diego Unified Board of Education where there is little dissent.
Trull faced significant headwinds: The district’s teachers union, who has long acted as a kingmaker in board races, supported Bazzo. Though she ran a relatively apolitical campaign, Trull was endorsed by the county’s Republican Party. That’s a hard sell for a district electorate that has voted in exclusively liberal, labor-supported candidates for multiple election cycles.
Despite all of that, voters seem open to a new face who can help clean up its old problems, party affiliation be damned.
Statewide: A Hit and a Miss
Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime ballot measure, passed easily Tuesday night. The proposition will roll back reforms made by Californians a decade earlier.
Recent waves of “smash and grab robberies” and fentanyl deaths led some business and law enforcement groups to revisit the earlier reforms. Proposition 36 toughens penalties for fentanyl trafficking and introduces court-ordered treatment for people convicted of drug offenses.
Affordable housing, roads and stormwater improvements might have to wait, after a ballot measure that would have made it easier to fund those investments is falling behind in early election returns. Proposition 5 aimed to lower the threshold for passing local infrastructure bonds from two-thirds to 55 percent.
Familiar Faces in South County
Incumbents led in early South County returns Tuesday night, with races for Board of Supervisors and city council seats in Imperial Beach and National City mostly favoring current officeholders.
Board of Supervisors Chair Nora Vargas held a comfortable lead over challenger Alejandro Galicia. National City councilmembers Jose Rodriguez and Marcus Bush also led, as did Imperial Beach Councilmembers John Fisher and Matthew Layba-Gonzalez.
In two Chula Vista City Council races with no incumbents, labor-backed candidates Cesar Fernandez and Michael Inzunza held leads. Races for mayor and a City Council seat in Coronado were too close to call. Newcomer Elizabeth Cox led in a closely watched race in the South Bay Water District.
The Election Day: Our Jim Hinch took in the scene summed up the day in South Bay in his weekly South County Report.
He asked County Supervisor Nora Vargas, who easily won re-election, about the beef between her and Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre.
“You know who’s making a beef between me and the mayor?” Vargas said. “The media. We all want the Tijuana River Valley to be fixed.”
Voices of the Voters
We dispatched reporters across the county to speak to voters about the issues that brought them out to the polls on Tuesday. Read the Voices of the Voters stories here.
One observation: San Diegans are worried about the cost of living. So many people spoke about how difficult it is to make ends meet in San Diego.
Election Day Photos: Voice contributors and photojournalists Vito di Stefano and Brittany Cruz-Fejeran captured some fascinating moments on Election Day. View the photo essay here.
Song of the Week
Music guru Jakob McWhinney sought out to find a calming tune to sooth our election week nerves.
Enter: “Kirsty’s Serenade” by Calcutta Kid. Read more here.
Do you have a “Song of the Week” suggestion? Shoot us an email and a sentence or two about why you’ve been bumping this song lately. Friendly reminder: all songs should be by local artists.
In Other News
- A district court judge has sentenced Leonard Francis, better known by his nickname “Fat Leonard,” to 15 years in prison. The Malaysian-born Navy contractor pleaded guilty to bribing officials in exchange for lucrative contracts. The decision closes the book on the worst corruption scandal in the history of the U.S. Navy. (Union-Tribune)
- The Padres are finalizing a two-year extension with the team’s manager, Mike Shildt. The deal is expected to be announced Wednesday. (Union-Tribune)
- About 25,000 people living in the backcountry are on notice that wildfire conditions may trigger power shut offs by the utility, San Diego Gas and Electric. Strong winds blowing toward the coast this week from the desert (called the Santa Anas) exacerbate wildfire conditions. (Union-Tribune)
The Morning Report was written by Will Huntsberry, Lisa Halverstadt, Andrea Lopez-Villafaña, Tigist Layne, Jim Hinch, MacKenzie Elmer and Deborah Brennan. It was edited by Will Huntsberry, Andrea Lopez-Villafaña, Bella Ross and Scott Lewis.
Obviously San Diego voters were oblivious to how Gloria has messed up San Diego with his policies and reckless disregard for solid Fiscal Responsibility.