Consultants for one of the leading Republican candidates for governor convened Friday night at a bar in the hotel lobby of a San Diego resort.
Liquor in hand, they rubbed shoulders alongside a small crowd of strategists, advocates and podcasters who were in a bit of a glow. At the Republican Party’s annual convention this weekend, conservatives were feeling optimistic ahead of planned endorsements for governor and other races.
Some, including state party chairperson Corrin Rankin, said there was still hope in the long-shot scenario that, in California’s top-two primary, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton would lock-out Democrats in the race.
That optimism played against the odds. Republicans haven’t held a statewide office in two decades, and the president’s party typically does worse in midterm elections. This, in addition to record-breaking gas prices, have made President Donald Trump more unpopular than ever in California.
Inflation has risen sharply since the war in Iran, rising 0.9 percent in March according to the latest report from the Consumer Price Index. And Trump’s popularity has worsened nationwide since the war in Iran began.
Voters also approved a ballot measure to oust as many as five Republicans from Congress last year, all while Democrats continue to hold supermajorities in the state Legislature.
But party leaders and advocates alike reiterated that things were looking up, even if only marginally so. What’s happening nationally has nothing to do with California and how Democrats have failed to make things more affordable, numerous delegates said.
On Friday, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Democrat running for governor, had also just been embroiled in sexual assault allegations and losing major endorsements in real-time. For some delegates, the fallout was a sign that Democrats were a party in disarray despite claiming nearly 45 percent of the state’s total registered voters.
“We’re seeing right now an early state of a shift and realignment in our state,” Imperial County GOP chairperson Says Morris said.
Imperial County flipped for President Donald Trump in 2024 for the first time in more than 30 years.
On Trump’s unpopularity and what it could mean for Republicans at the ballot box, Rankin avoided answering questions directly.
Bianco, who has been the favorite amongst the party’s grassroots activists, was careful to distance himself from Trump, saying the president’s endorsement would have been nice but would not affect voters’ support for him.
“I think people here are tired of California. They know that the federal government is doing nothing to harm or help California,” Bianco told Voice of San Diego. “For the last week, people haven’t cared what President Trump is doing.”
One strategy party leaders emphasized is to focus on downballot races in parts of the state that are trending rightward. That includes picking up a few legislative seats in the Central Valley and holding onto the ones that flipped in the Inland Empire.
At a “Make California Great Again” session, organizers outlined what that’d take, such as registering young people and engaging with Asian and Latino voters who are increasingly diversifying the party.
Nearby Assemblymember Laurie-Davies and Kelly Serato’s district are also expected to be safe for Republicans.
In order to replicate those results, Morris said, Republicans have to expand voter registration in rural and underserved areas in the Inland Empire, Central Valley and parts of Los Angeles.
That’s turned their attention to a few competitive races in the state Assembly and Senate. The party is confident it can hold a closely-watched legislative race in the San Diego area district represented by Republican Minority Leader Brian Jones.
San Marcos City Councilmember Ed Musgrove is the favorite among establishment Republicans, having received endorsements from Jones and U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa.
For some at the convention, Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s Reform California is part of the answer. Volunteers in one session handed out blue and yellow flyers outlining the organization’s priorities, the main one being a voter ID ballot initiative that would require voters to prove their citizenship each time they cast a ballot.
But DeMaio also continues to split factions of the party as his group — which has raised millions of dollars through small-donor donations from grassroots activists — as it sets itself up as an alternative to the state party’s flailing influence in California politics.
Local in-fighting in the San Diego county Party over who should succeed Jones stopped the state party from being able to make an endorsement over the weekend.
“That really creates that conflict, and we’re spending a lot of money against each other just because of that,” Justin Schlaefil, a conservative activist and friend of Jones, said. “It is winnable, but it is very tight. So, that is challenging.”
What I’m Reading Now
The Manhattan district attorney’s office is investigating claims that U.S Rep and gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell sexually abused multiple women, the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Teachers in Los Angeles are planning to walk-off the job next week over stalled contract negotiations, from Politico.
The San Francisco Chronicle endorses Michael Tubbs — a former Stockton mayor who shot to national fame for becoming the youngest and first Black person to do so — for the mostly ceremonial role of lieutenant governor.
Thanks for reading the Sacramento Report. Please feel free to reach me: nadia@voiceofsandiego.org.