While I was researching my City Heights story today, I solicited your questions and insight on the housing market there.
Here's a note I got from a reader who asked to remain anonymous:
I was recently in contract to buy a house in North Park for $700k, very nice vintage house, well kept. The appraisal came in at $600k. The amount of the discrepancy was so staggering that we thought the appraiser was inexperienced and overly conservative. We hired a second appraiser and the appraisal amount was not much different. We asked the sellers to lower the price but they refused so we walked away from the deal.
Conclusion: the proximity of the house was fairly close to City Heights and we think that values in North Park on the lower end are being affected by what's going on in City Heights. The fear is that even "nicer" homes in North Park could get pulled down by a contagion effect in the neighboring market. I think of it as a reversion to the mean. Either the higher price house will have to go down in price to be closer to the low end, or the lower priced homes will have to appreciate significantly (the latter seems more likely).
What do you think? Send your thoughts, questions, comments or story ideas to kelly.bennett@voiceofsandiego.org.
Monday, July 21 -- 2:48 pm
San Diego County's unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent in June, marking an increase from 5.5 percent in May and an even bigger increase from the 4.6 percent rate in June 2007, according to numbers released this morning by the state Employment Development Department.
The statewide rate was 7.0 in June and the nation's was 5.7 percent.
Sectors showing the largest job losses were the usual suspects: construction and financial services. Seven of every 10 jobs lost in financial services were in real estate, rental and leasing.
The biggest gains were in leisure and hospitality.
Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director for local nonprofit Center on Policy Initiatives, sent me an e-mail as soon as the numbers came out this morning. He said he's concerned about the jump in the rate, especially despite significant growth in the often low-paying leisure and hospitality sector.
This is a double-whammy for our region, not only are we lagging behind the rest of the country in the number of jobs, we are adding jobs that make it difficult for workers to make ends meet.
Friday, July 18 -- 12:29 pm In my story today I mentioned the plunging property values for owners at El Cortez.
Here are the units that have sold so far in 2008, as compiled in a snazzy chart by Sam Hodgson.
Here's some context for why the drops have been so steep, from the first look I took at the building earlier this year: And though sales have slumped countywide, buyers are especially scarce on this project. Lenders, already reviewing each deal more meticulously, are extremely averse to making mortgages on buildings in litigation. The banks selling the repossessed properties are forced to keep lowering the prices until a buyer can pay cash or work out some other deal with a lender.
The litigation and some unexpected maintenance cost increases mean the rest of the homeowners pay about 30 percent more each month on their association dues than they expected to when they moved in, placing the dues for most units in the $600 and $700 range. That conflates with the developers' plans to build another condo tower right next door to make the building a tough sell. Tuesday, July 15 -- 2:49 pm I've been meaning to post this stat for a while.
One-quarter of all foreclosed single-family homes in the state are occupied by renters, the California Apartment Association estimates.
I'm trying to track down how they came up with that number to see if we can make a similar estimate locally. And I'm working on a story this week about the impact of foreclosures on renters. If you have any questions or if you're a tenant affected in some way by foreclosure, send me an e-mail at kelly.bennett@voiceofsandiego.org. I told you about some tenants in a story a couple of years ago who figured as long as their landlord was still paying for their grass to be cut, they were OK.
I caught Carlsbad eviction attorney James Burmeister on the phone this afternoon. When a house is repossessed and is still lived in by the owner, Burmeister only has to give the owner three days to leave the house.
But that time period widens significantly when the foreclosed houses have tenants living in them. That time period used to be 30 days. But with a new law signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week, eviction attorneys now have to give tenants 60 days' notice before they have to vacate the house.
Monday, July 14 -- 3:49 pm Call this the Willard Scott corner of Survival in San Diego. Today is the 100th birthday of Virginia Ryal of Poway. Ryal's family wrote me yesterday to see if voiceofsandiego.org has a feature for locals hitting the century mark. I was intrigued and asked them to tell me a little more about Ryal.
Ryal's granddaughter, Allison Bagley, said her grandmother has performed on stage, has survived two husbands and has a daily hankering for a Starbucks mocha frappuccino, Bagley says. She roots for the Padres.
Here's a bit more from Bagley about her grandmother:
Virginia was the first person in her home town to fly in an airplane in the Midwest. They all saw the plane and she ran for it, she was in the air by the time her mother arrived at the field with the rest of the town. Virginia waved to her mother and watched her mother pass out as she climbed into the sky. The ride was thrilling. ...
"Ginny" as all her friends and family call her, loves shoes, darling outfits, and jewelry -- she taught me to have a love for shoes. She never dressed like a Grandma, she was always too stylish. She could paint pottery, do needlework, and used to craft all the time. ...
Wisdom, experience, grace, all words that describe my Ginny; I am better because of her and a strong and adventurous woman following her footsteps. Ginny loved to travel and see the world. She was never afraid to try new things and believes that the changes that she has seen in her 100 years are amazing blessings that has made the world better.
If you know a soon-to-be centenarian -- or for that matter, if you're a 99-year-old reader of voiceofsandiego.org -- shoot me a note before the big 100th birthday and we'll keep reporting on these survivors in San Diego.
Happy birthday, Virginia!
Friday, July 11 -- 11:26 am I'm back, my sister's now a Mrs. and the salmon was delicious.
I found and wanted to share a couple of interesting bits from June 28's The Vancouver Sun that I read on my flight north.
One was a graph originally made by the chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, a huge bank in Canada. The hypothesis behind the graph: Is the Canadian housing market just two years behind its U.S. counterpart? Here's that graph, if you want to see it. The pattern is quite striking, and the slowdown in home sales hints that Canada could be on a similar downward trajectory as the United States, according to the economist who compiled the chart.
I turned the page of the paper and read an interesting story about the housing market in my hometown, Victoria, B.C.
Headline: "Victoria real estate market gets 'back to normal' as industry sees signs housing boom is over."
A whole lot of the quotes sounded similar to the ones I heard from people two years ago when San Diego's market was beginning to teeter.
"We are definitely seeing a shift in the marketplace, although it's certainly not a time for panic," said Victoria Real Estate Board president Tony Joe. "For people hoping home values will be plummeting any time in the future, I don't think that's going to be happening any time soon." ...
"We're also looking over the last five or six years and what we're finding is things are just coming back to normal," he said.
Here's a snippet from the first housing market story I wrote for voiceofsandiego.org in July 2006:
John Karevoll, a housing analyst with DataQuick Information Services, said the market is returning to normal.
"I don’t think things are as grim as some say they are," he said.
I'd like to point out, though, that whenever one person says the market is returning to "normal," there's likely somebody else (or many somebodies else) who think the market's headed for slump.
From North County real estate broker Jim Klinge in that story:
"It’s anything but normal, if you ask me," Klinge said.
And here's what Chris Thornberg, then an economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast, added in that 2006 story:
Thornberg attributes the "everything’s fine" response from the realty industry to the "bunker mode" mentality that comes in circumstances like these.
"People are loathe to realize losses in homes," Thornberg said. "They don’t want to talk about it, to think about it."
And now, of course, with prices down nearly 30 percent from the peak, we've had little else to talk or think about. I'll keep checking on the Victoria and Vancouver markets and track how closely they mirror the slowdown here.
Wednesday, July 9 -- 2:49 pm
I'm headed out on an early plane tomorrow to Victoria, British Columbia, for my sister's wedding. (She's getting hitched on the Fourth, funnily enough. No red, white and blue this year for this dual citizen.)
As much as I love you, I will be too busy to keep the blog fresh. I'll be tying chartreuse ribbons and making photo montages and generally serving as Slave -- er, Maid -- of Honor. (That's Honour, where we come from.)
So have fun and don't get too close to the firecrackers. Keep your eyes peeled for the next People at Work on July 7. And send me an e-mail with your thoughts on stories, what you're seeing in the market or things you hope I'll cover when I get back.
Meantime, I heard my dad's smoking salmon...
Friday, June 27 -- 5:42 pm
I heard from Bill Curtis, our "Lure of Wichita" reader whose frustrations with the local housing market have finally propelled him out of town.
 He sent me an e-mail last night with some photos of his new house in Kansas:
I promised to send you a picture of our new house after I bought one here in Wichita. So here it is. It's so new it doesn't even have grass yet.
You won't believe the following stats, but it's true.
My new place is ...
newly built - 2008
5 bedroom / 3 bath
2900 sq. ft. including the main floor and basement
3 Car garage
whirlpool tub in master bath
walk in closet
located at the end of a cul-de-sac
18,000 sq. ft. lot
and there's a small lake behind the back yard.
All this for...
Wait for it...
$209K
Do I miss San Diego? Not even a little bit.
OK, so maybe Curtis is bragging a little bit. How about you? Would you, have you, will you leave San Diego County to buy a house like this? Send me an e-mail.
I'm not sure how his moving out of state will affect the request he's made for more information about his mother-in-law's visa denial. Rep. Brian Bilbray's office is still waiting to hear more detail about the denial. I'll keep you posted as I figure it out.
Friday, June 27 -- 2:51 pm
A sentence was notably missing from Alan Gin's economic index today. That was the sentence where Gin usually says he still thinks the region will avoid a recession.
This is a big deal. Gin's index is one of the widest-watched measures of the local economy. In a couple of speeches and panels earlier this year, Gin found his no-recession position at odds with the gloomier forecasts of some of his economist peers.
But the index today, for May, was decidedly grim. May was also the eighth straight month where the index declined "significantly," and the 25th month of the past 26 where there were declines at all, according to Gin.
In Gin's words:
Employment growth for 2008 as a whole through May is now just barely positive with a gain of only 400 jobs compared to the same period in 2007. Barring a huge surge in jobs in June, employment growth for 2008 as a whole will probably turn negative when the next employment report is released. How long the job losses continue and how deep they will be is uncertain at this point.
That's the point in the index where Gin usually has the "but..." and then a statement of how the San Diego region would avoid recession.
But after such a bleak outlook, that nuance was missing today.
Here were Gin's words from a chat I had with him in February:
"At the national level a recession is a decline in the economy either measured by GDP dropping for a couple of quarters, or massive job losses," he said. "I don't think we'll see either here in San Diego."
For one thing, he said, it's tough to get data on the gross regional product -- what would be the San Diego-equivalent to the GDP, because its data only comes out once a year. Still, Gin says he doesn't think year-over-year drops in that measure are in store. Instead, he's projected growth, albeit very slow growth -- maybe 5,000 to 8,000 jobs this year.
I caught Gin on the phone a few minutes ago to ask if he's changed his tune.
It's true, he said: San Diego has now seen those year-over-year drops that Gin wasn't expecting. He said he'll be watching June numbers very carefully, but for now it looks like all told, the numbers for January to June job growth will prove lower than the numbers for the same six months in 2007.
Those six months of negative job growth compared to the same six months the year before is a locally-adjusted definition of recession, he said.
He said the numbers have deteriorated much more rapidly than he expected in the sectors tied to real estate, including the retail jobs in furniture and home decor sales.
"It looks like in the first half of 2008, the falloff in job growth is just much more rapid than before."
Thursday, June 26 -- 6:33 pm
I just heard from Darrell Foxworth, spokesman for the San Diego division of the FBI, that law enforcement has arrested two of the fugitive defendants from the alleged mortgage fraud ring announced Thursday.
Defendant Angel Armendariz turned himself in at the FBI offices on Aero Drive this morning. And FBI officers arrested defendant Rafael Santiago in Los Angeles this afternoon, Foxworth said.
Officials are still looking for Lucette Montaine, the last of the six individuals named in the federal complaint released last week.
Tuesday, June 24 -- 5:20 pm
House prices in San Diego County have fallen to a point last seen in late 2003, according to the most recent Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released this morning.
Today's reading of the index, dated April 2008, was 180.57. That means prices are still about 81 percent higher than they were in January 2000, when the index was centered at 100.
Prices have fallen 28 percent from the peak of 250.34 in November 2005. And they've fallen 22 percent from the same time last year.
April's reading matches a point last seen around October and November 2003.
Broken into thirds, the index showed drops along the following lines:
Lowest tier (Homes priced lower than $379,636): Prices fell 30.9 percent year-over-year and 36.1 percent from this tier's peak in June 2006.
Middle tier (Homes priced between $379,636 and $566,964): Prices fell 23.3 percent compared to April 2007 and 29.7 percent from this tier's peak in November 2005.
Highest tier (More than $566,964): Prices fell 15 percent year-over-year and 19.2 percent from this tier's peak in June 2006.
The index measures price changes on the same houses over the years. It doesn't track condos or new homes.
We're working on a full story with these numbers, so check back for more later. One quick observation is that the drops on the high end are growing -- last month's index showed lesser drops both year-over-year and from the peak.
As always, if you have thoughts or questions or just want to say hi, send me an e-mail.
Tuesday, June 24 -- 11:53 am
Grandma! I caught a fish and it was thiiiiiiiis big!
A couple of months ago, I kept the blogging sparse in Survival and told you I was gone fishin' -- burrowed into a story that was consuming my energy and covering my desk with photos and papers.
If you'll let Survival serve as my refrigerator for a moment, Grandma's getting out the magnets and hanging this story, a profile of a guy named George Gorton. It ran this morning with a second part to come tomorrow, and it's the story I've been working on for a few months with my incredible colleague Andrew Donohue.
Self-horn-tooting over.
Monday, June 23 -- 2:18 pm Six individuals were charged in an alleged mortgage fraud scheme with potential losses to mortgage lenders of $5.1 million, the U.S. Attorney's Office announced this afternoon.
The alleged scheme involved 21 properties sold between 2005 and 2006, with at least five in San Diego County and at least three of them condo units in downtown San Diego. The group, operating under the name Creative Financial Solutions Inc., allegedly obtained mortgages for unqualified or unknowing borrowers.
The alleged scheme fits the profile of a common variety of mortgage fraud against lending institutions in San Diego County, often called "cash back at closing." Under the alleged scheme, one of the defendants would contact a listing agent for a property, and offer to buy it for an amount higher than the property's asking price.
The listing agent would raise the asking price and a fraudulently inflated appraisal for the new amount. The lender would approve a loan for the new amount, and the buyer would purchase the house, using a mortgage for 100 percent of the home price or close to it.
The sellers would get their full asking price, and the difference between the original asking price and the new amount would be split in cash between some of the defendants, who acted as agents or loan officers for the purchase. Plus, the defendants allegedly netted commissions on the sales, too.
After the home has been abandoned and foreclosed on, the bank is left with a repossessed property that was never worth the amount the bank had lent.
Of the 21 loans analyzed by the FBI as examples of the alleged scheme, 18 loans have been foreclosed or are in the foreclosure process, according to court documents.
The U.S. attorney alleges that the individuals:
Submitted false purchase contracts to conceal the true purchase price of the homes
Submitted false loan applications
Intentionally concealed the fair market value of the home
Used misleading appraisals
Submitted false bank statements and income documentation.
Defendants Abner Betech, Said Betech and Aviva Betech, San Diego residents, were arraigned on felony charges of wire fraud and aiding and abetting on Tuesday. Three named individuals -- Rafael Santiago of Riverside, and Angel Armendariz and Lucette Montane of Chula Vista -- have not yet been arrested. The defendants range in age from 25 to 39.
The case arose from an FBI nationwide investigation dubbed "Operation Malicious Mortgage," with additional investigation by the IRS.
Check back for more on this story later.
Thursday, June 19 -- 4:26 pm
I asked for your votes and I heard loud support from several readers for a look at City Heights in our next installment of "The Neighborhood Market" series.
One of the most compelling reasons for making City Heights our next neighborhood was sent by reader FW:
Considering that the largest price movements both up and now down have been in the lower income areas, I think they deserve your attention.
FW was, of course, referencing the lowest tier in the Case-Shiller home price index. A large portion of the homes for sale in City Heights fit in that lowest tier, where home prices appreciated by the most percentage-wise in the boom and have fallen by the most since the peak in June 2006.
So I'd love to hear your questions, your thoughts on City Heights real estate, or what you've noticed if you live or work nearby. Send me an e-mail if you have anything to share or any questions you think I should be sure to ask.
Tuesday, June 17 -- 5:42 pm
About 12 percent fewer homes sold in the county in May than sold in the same month in 2007, DataQuick reported this morning.
Still, May's sales total was the highest for any recent month since August 2007. The homes that did sell -- 2,979 of them -- logged the lowest median price the county has seen since September 2003.
DataQuick attributed the trend of increased sales juxtaposed with a deeper price plunge across the Southern California region to bargain shoppers and "sluggish high-end sales, more sellers dropping their asking prices and lenders selling off more of their aggressively priced, repossessed homes," in a press release.
Agents hunting for a silver lining were touting last month's sales bump as evidence the market was turning around.
Chris Thornberg, housing economist, disputed the notion of a quick turnaround in my story on the Case-Shiller index last month:
"Home markets do not bounce, they splat," Thornberg said. "We're not dropping a rubber ball here, we're dropping a watermelon."
Monday, June 16 -- 4:46 pm A total of 6,201 foreclosure-related notices went to county households in May, marking a 17 percent increase from the month before and an 84 percent increase compared to May 2007, RealtyTrac reported this morning.
The records are filed when a house reaches a new stage of foreclosure -- notice of default, notice of auction and bank repossession.
One record was filed for every 182 households in the county.
Friday, June 13 -- 3:38 pm
I've been hearing this morning from a few people looking for phone numbers and help for folks they know who've been affected by this alleged real estate scam. I wrote about some of the victims in my story today.
The short answer is to call 619.531.4475. That's the hotline that has been set up in a partnership between the district attorney, the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals and the Housing Opportunities Collaborative, the nonprofit group of housing counselors that we've written about for their foreclosure clinics.
The group overseeing the hotline is in the middle of contacting people who've already called in. And they've now sent a letter in English and Spanish to the victims they haven't received calls from, said Mike Groch, economic crimes division chief for the district attorney. The group will hold a workshop for those victims this weekend.
"We're doing our best to get those folks steered in the right direction," Groch said.
The challenge with outreach is that for victims like Emy Palacios in my story today, their addresses now belong to the bank or to another homeowner. And, whenever you get multiple agencies involved in something like this, the confusion is bound to increase.
On Thursday, I told you about the English/Spanish problem that had arisen in the Attorney General's Office's outreach to potential victims of the alleged foreclosure rescue scam announced three weeks ago.
Angela Rosenau, deputy attorney general, told me Thursday her office had decided to send its letters to victims not just in English but in Spanish too, since a large number of the victims they'd identified spoke only Spanish.
But a number of victims had yet to receive the mailing from the attorney general as of Monday. I heard that from a mortgage broker in Vista who's been doing her own outreach to victims and has talked to more than a dozen.
I called Rosenau yesterday afternoon to see what happened.
Rosenau said her office had decided to hand over the responsibility for victim outreach to the DA's office, via its hotline. She said that will help avoid confusion for homeowners and will allow her office to concentrate its efforts on reaching potential victims in other counties.
"We decided not to continue to pursue it (San Diego mailers) in the short term," she said.
But she underscored the desperation that some homeowners feel right now, having been caught up in the alleged scam. She said those homeowners should call the DA's hotline.
"Unfortunately, short term is all some of these people have," she said.
Date: 6/13/08 I asked for suggestions for my next installment in our "The Neighborhood Market" series, and you answered.
Here are the suggestions I heard over the weekend for our next attempt to stop in on a market, hear from the real estate pros and home buyers and sellers on the streets there, and through all of these stories, assemble a mosaic of the San Diego housing scene.
Downtown
City Heights
Southeast San Diego
San Ysidro
South Park
North Park
Bay Park
Kensington
Escondido
Feel free to shoot me a note with your vote for one of the neighborhoods listed above, or a suggestion for another one.
Date: 6/9/08 It's been a while since we've stopped in for a look at a local neighborhood's real estate market. We launched "The Neighborhood Market" series at the end of February with a piece on Carmel Valley, and followed it up in March with a look at PB and Mission Beach.
We know it's tricky to tell the story of the housing market on a county level. We know the data often appears vague when it includes stats from Chula Vista and Carmel Valley and Oceanside and Descanso. And so, like in the above stories, we're hoping to stop in on some markets, hear from the real estate pros and home buyers and sellers on the streets there, and through it all assemble a mosaic of the San Diego housing scene.
Now I'm planning the next installment, and I'm looking for your ideas. Where should I go next? Send me an e-mail with your thoughts.
Friday, June 6 -- 12:44 pm
|
Survival in San Diego
"When we launched this blog in August 2006, we knew that housing concerns and job issues -- the building blocks of surviving in San Diego -- were grinding away a little bit of our readers' bliss. We thought the blog would be a great chance to share little bits of our longer housing and economics stories. And what a couple of years we've had covering such hot topics."
-- Kelly Bennett (May 12, 2008)
E-mail Bennett at kelly.bennett@voiceofsandiego.org
Recent Survival in San Diego Posts
Her exit from a redevelopment post in West Palm Beach similar.
Thursday, July 24 -- 7:15 pm
Nancy Graham explains her resignation.
Thursday, July 24 -- 4:53 pm
In addition to auditing SEDC, the city will also look at three other city agencies.
Thursday, July 24 -- 4:47 pm
SURVIVAL IN SAN DIEGO
She's getting some deserved vacation, but will be back soon.
Wednesday, July 23 -- 4:13 pm
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Aguirre shows them who's boss.
Thursday, July 24 -- 4:18 pm
CAFÉ SAN DIEGO
Thirty years after Blackout Pete implemented his redevelopment model for San Diego, it's time for a major overhaul.
Thursday, July 24 -- 7:56 pm
COMMENTARY: SLOP
This isn't a job. It's a mission. And we're eating up every moment of it. Join us.
Wednesday, July 23 -- 3:57 pm
COMMENTARY: RICH TOSCANO
June made for another record-setting month in San Diego foreclosure activity.
Tuesday, July 22 -- 12:34 pm
|
|
|
|
E-MAIL POST
