If California’s primary election results tell us anything about what’s to come in November, it’s that Republicans in the state Legislature face a difficult road.
In Southern California and the Central Valley, where leading candidates are neck-and-neck, GOP lawmakers will likely need to work overtime to hold their 19 Assembly and 10 Senate seats in the Democratic-controlled chambers.
Two San Diego races in coastal and inland North County could test whether Republicans continue to lose political power in the region, as the party faces midterm headwinds tied to President Donald Trump’s mounting unpopularity.
Take inland North County, where Democrats are competing to swap termed-out Republican Sen. Brian Jones with Mara Elliott, the former San Diego city attorney. Elliott will face Kristie Bruce-Lane, a two-time Republican Assembly candidate backed by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio. Bruce-Lane is an ally of DeMaio and his group Reform California and supports its key platforms such as a proof-of-citizenship voter ID law.
Elliott secured about 48 percent of the vote in state Senate District 40 based on the ballots counted as of Wednesday morning. She filed to run in the district after San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, who first ran in the 40th District, moved to challenge Rep. Darrell Issa in the House before he dropped out.
In a blow to establishment San Diego Republicans, their chosen candidate, San Marcos Mayor Ed Musgrove, failed to advance to the general election despite support from Issa and outraising all other candidates. As of Wednesday, Bruce-Lane had about 28 percent of the votes.
Musgrove raised more than $366,000, while Elliott had about $280,000. Outside groups also propped up Musgrove in the weeks leading up to Election Day, including a political committee funded by Google and Meta that spent more than $700,000.
Encompassing suburban cities San Marcos and Escondido, voter registration in the district has been trending Democratic, but Republicans still have a slight edge: 58 percent of voters are Republican or have no party preference.
A Bruce-Lane vs. Elliott matchup is the one Democrats wanted. With fewer ties to the Republican Party and her embrace of far-right views, most political watchers agree it will be difficult for Bruce-Lane to win the purple district.
GOP incumbents in similarly competitive seats in Riverside County and the Coachella Valley have worked to distance themselves from polarizing issues such as immigration, instead focusing on district-specific issues.
The Senate race has been at the core of GOP infighting that’s escalated since DeMaio was elected in 2024 as lawmakers have struggled over whether to embrace or distance themselves from issues that activate Republican voters, such as voter ID, but alienate swing voters.
Further up the coast, another legislative battle is brewing in North County, where Democrats are on defense. Encinitas Democratic Sen. Catherine Blakespear will face Republican Laura Bassett, a county civil service commissioner who is endorsed by the California GOP in Senate District 38. Each ran uncontested by another member of their party.
Located between conservative Orange County and liberal-leaning San Diego County, the district is one of several Republican targets this year. Most registered voters — about 37 percent — are Democrats, while 32 percent are Republican and 23 percent have no party preference.
Blakespear has amassed a sizable war chest, raising more than $1.25 million in the primary. She has made clearing homeless encampments and setting up more treatment programs for homeless people a key part of her legislative record.
Meanwhile, as ballot counts were mostly finalized, with fewer than 40,000 outstanding by Wednesday morning in San Diego County, officials said a new state law meant to speed up the process hasn’t done much. The law, Assembly Bill 5, gave counties 13 rather than 30 days to count ballots and took effect this year.
But in San Diego County and most other California counties, most of the routine ballots are already counted within 13 days, said Registrar Shawn Brom.
But conditional ballots (those cast by voters who register the same day) and provisional ballots (cast by voters whose registration needs to be verified) take longer.
The new state law still allows counties up to 30 days to count those ballots.
Some have questioned the point of it.
Berman said the purpose of the bill was to set clear deadlines for counties, some of which – including Los Angeles – were not meeting the new 13-day time limit.
There could be more legislation in the next two and a half months to speed up the process, Berman said. But he thinks any changes would need to be weighed against limiting voter access, which he believes requiring mail-in ballots to arrive before Election Day would do.
“I wouldn’t want to see us weaken voter protections just to count ballots faster,” he said.
What I’m Reading Now
Free meals can get complicated. The Los Angeles Times dives into the world of one restaurant’s relationship with a paid influencer and the messy politics of food advertising.
Supporters of a healthcare sales tax meant to offset federal funding cuts celebrated in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times writes.
The FBI raided the homes of two San Francisco Bay Area county tax assessors to look for evidence of wire fraud, from The Mercury News.
Thanks for reading this week’s Sacramento Report. Please reach me at nadia@voiceofsandiego.org for any tips, questions or comments.
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