- Is Nick Leibham surging in the 50th Congressional District? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Leibham to its “Red to Blue” list of candidate it thinks can upset the Republican incumbent.
Some of the sources of analysis sympathetic to Leibham and Democrats — like the Huffington Post — are starting to get on the challenger’s bandwagon. What looked once like an impossible effort might not be so crazy. Leibham’s ad criticizing Bilbray’s support for veterans have been brutal. And the Democrat has been raising more money than incumbent Brian Bilbray.
I just spoke to Patrick Drinan, a political science professor at the University of San Diego.
He put Leibham’s chance of an upset at one in five.
“The Democrats have been targeting that congressional district for a good period of time and he has substantial funding. It shows you how audacious and well financed the Democrats are this cycle,” Drinan said.
He said that, unfortunately for Bilbray, his signature issue — immigration — has been completely taken off the table.
But he also said another controversial issue might save the incumbent: gay marriage. The district has a lot of Mormons and evangelicals and their opposition to Proposition 8 might get them to the polls supporting other Republicans.
- Hmm, who was the local political pundit who found it odd that City Attorney Mike Aguirre would begin his main television push with more or less an apology?
Aguirre’s bizarre decision to say he wishes he would have done some things differently to introduce his main plea for reelection appears to be coming back to haunt him.
- I thought Sam Hodgson did a great job on this story. Give it a read if you are interested at all in the local beach booze ban campaign.