Breaking Down the Ballot Savings

I just received a formal breakdown from San Diego Chief Operating Officer Jay Goldstone on the savings attached to the city’s November financial reform ballot measure.

Here it is.

The savings could be anywhere from $626,000 to $85.5 million a year, according to the city. And the document provides a better glimpse at the individual reforms than the numbers I reported yesterday.

(We’ve decided to use annual numbers rather that the five and 10 year estimates because they easily compare with the annual estimates for budget deficits and potential sales tax revenue.)

One initial thought.

The document validates what we’ve been saying all along: The impact of most reforms depend on decisions made outside the ballot measure’s requirements. In just two of the 10 reforms, eliminating certain retirement contributions for elected officials and non-union employees and establishing a lower pension plan for new firefighters, did Goldstone put a definitive number on the savings. For the rest, the savings are variable and they depend on further action taken.

And that variability, as we noted yesterday, is huge. Savings from the two big ticket reform items, implementing managed competition and reducing retiree health care costs, range from $1 to $69 million. The $69 million is more than 80 percent of the high-end annual savings Goldstone projected.

— LIAM DILLON