Just a quick update on the November Case-Shiller numbers. After the surprisingly abrupt decline in October, the aggregate index flattened out in November:
There was, however, some dispersion within the individual price tiers, as the high and low tiers bounced while the middle tier continued to drop.
The graph above shows the price indexes since the early-2009 trough; here they are since the 2005-2006 bubble peak:
My guess for now is that these zigs and zags are just month-to-month noise. Taken as a whole, the price movements in October and November amount to a continued mild decline as we’ve seen since the summer. The median price data suggests that the Case-Shiller index will drop again in December, by somewhere in the vicinity of 1.4 percent.
Please contact Rich Toscano at rtoscano@pcasd.com and follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/richtoscano.