The median price per square foot of resale San Diego homes declined in the aggregate last month. However, the detached home series, which is a more reliable indicator of market conditions than the more volatile condo or aggregate price series, actually increased (admittedly by a scant .2 percent):
The Case-Shiller index for April will not be released for a while yet. But my estimate of April’s Case-Shiller value, which is calculated based on the past three months’ single family median price per square foot, is actually higher than March’s estimated value. If these estimates prove to be directionally accurate, April will end up being only the second month since July 2010 in which San Diego’s Case-Shiller index increased. (It should be noted that the bulk of the increase is due to January’s big median price per square foot decline dropping out of the calculation).
Closed and pending sales were slightly down from the prior month:
And inventory saw a very slight increase:
As a result, months of inventory, which measures how supply compares to demand, rose slightly from the prior month. However, at 4.9 months, this measure was still comfortably below the 6-month level that has historically tended to mark the line between price increases and price decreases.
April seemed like a fairly neutral month for San Diego resale homes. Prices seemed to be pretty flat, and supply stayed within a fairly healthy range compared to demand. This is not exactly robust “spring bounce” material, but it also appears to be a bit more positive than some of the gloomy headlines out there would suggest.
Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*. He can be contacted at rtoscano@pcasd.com.