San Diego Employment Still in an Uptrend

The latest job data is in, and while seasonally-adjusted employment is estimated to have dropped between August and September, August’s employment figure was revised sharply upward.  Notwithstanding the monthly zigs and zags, San Diego employment continues to trend upward.

Here’s a look at the job data that is not seasonally-adjusted.  We are getting into the time of year in which seasonal forces tend to push employment upward, so that red line will likely  rise in the months ahead.

Here’s a look at year-over-year job growth for the housing bubble-related sectors, the non-housing bubble sectors, and government.  As has been the case for over a year, the non-bubble private sector is responsible for virtually all of San Diego’s job growth.

Between September 2010 and September 2011, San Diego employment increased by 1.4 percent, or 17,300 jobs.  Employment has been growing at a roughly similar pace throughout 2011.

At the national level, some forecasters with very good track records are predicting another recession.  Whether they are correct, when a recession might begin if they are, and how it might impact San Diego in specific all remain to be seen. 

Even without interruption, it will take years at the current pace before the region once again achieves the level of employment seen before the big crash. 

Fortunately, the upward trend in San Diego is thus far still intact.

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*.  He can be contacted at rtoscano@pcasd.com.