The median price per square foot for resale homes sold in San Diego dropped in January, falling by 1.4 percent for the month and by 1.3 percent from January 2011:

Closed home sales (the black square on the following chart) were right in the middle of the typical range over the past few years, and were up 5.4 percent from last January:

Pending sales, however, were higher than usual, up 11.9 percent from a year ago:

Inventory was at exactly the same level as in January 2010, but was 17.6 percent below January 2011’s level:

Months of inventory, which measures how many homes are for sale compared the rate at which they are being purchased, was notably lower than in recent Januaries past:

There was 26.3 percent less supply by this measure than in January of 2011, and 4.2 months of inventory is the lowest reading we’ve seen in nearly two years.  Prices may have been dropping of late, but if supply remains this constrained and rates remain incredibly low (that second one is a big “if”), it’s certainly plausible that prices could start to rebound once the spring season gets underway.

Rich Toscano is a financial advisor with Pacific Capital Associates*.  He can be contacted at

Rich Toscano has been observing the housing market for Voice of San Diego, with the occasional prolonged absence, since 2006. Follow him on Twitter at...

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