We don’t normally report on polls. They can be unreliable, take too much time to understand and distract us from examining the issues that voters care about.

But a day before the final ballots are cast in the mayoral primary, it’s worth reviewing not the specific figures but how the candidates have fared in the polls over time. Who has gained or lost momentum?

The graphic above illustrates the results from five polls conducted by SurveyUSA between September last year and last Thursday. City Councilman Carl DeMaio has always been the frontrunner, and District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis has always been projected to not advance through the primary.

The second slot in the election appears to be a closer contest between Congressman Bob Filner and Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, whose polling skyrocketed after leaving the Republican Party in March.

U-T San Diego also conducted polls in March and early May that showed similar trends as the SurveyUSA polls. DeMaio led, Fletcher tightened the gap with Filner and Dumanis sat in last.

Of course, polls aren’t always accurate predictors. We’ll just have to wait until the election polls close on Tuesday to find out.

If you’re interested in watching the results come in, please consider joining me and other Voice of San Diego staff at our election night party. It’s free and open to the public. For more information, click here.

Keegan Kyle is a news reporter for Voice of San Diego. He writes about local government, creates infographics and handles the Fact Check Blog. What should he write about next?

Please contact him directly at keegan.kyle@voiceofsandiego.org or 619.550.5668. You can also find him on Twitter (@keegankyle) and Facebook.

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