Political races run on several tracks at once. There’s the campaign voters see: Public appearances, news coverage, social media posts.
Then there’s the rawer, realer behind-the-scenes scramble for money, endorsements and the backing of powerful interest groups.
In the campaign to replace recently departed San Diego County Supervisor Nora Vargas, it’s that second, rawer race that’s in top gear now.
Campaigns are expensive—hundreds of thousands of dollars flow into races for County Supervisor—and it’s hard to get voters’ attention, especially in an off-year special election.
Money and endorsements are the fuel that keep campaigns running. The money comes not only from individual donors but also from independent expenditures made on candidates’ behalf by powerful interest groups such as labor unions and homebuilders. Key endorsements help unlock big donations by generating news headlines and giving candidates an aura of electability. Everything builds on everything else.
The candidates in the race to replace Vargas following her abrupt resignation late last year are Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, Chula Vista City Councilmember Carolina Chavez, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann and San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno.
This week, you can expect to see most or all of them making their case to the San Diego Labor Council, one of the most powerful organized labor groups in the county. The Council is expected to conduct interviews with candidates later this week and issue an endorsement (or announce they’re staying out of the race) by the end of February. The San Diego Labor Council spent close to $300,000 last year to help re-elect District 3 County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer, according to campaign filings.
Democratic candidates – all but McCann, the race’s lone Republican – are also making the rounds to local Democratic clubs, which are expected to hold their own endorsement meetings in coming weeks. Those endorsements will in turn make their way up the party’s chain of command to a late February meeting at which countywide party leaders will decide which (if any) candidate to back.
Party support can make or break a candidacy because party backing tends to influence other big-dollar donors. Also, many voters simply follow the party’s recommendations in mailbox voter guides. Vargas won the party’s endorsement in her successful 2020 run for Supervisor.
Two candidates appear to have an early lead in this year’s endorsement race. By the end of the first week in January, Aguirre already had assembled a list of more than 20 local elected leaders backing her, including state Sen. Steve Padilla. Last week, she announced that the entire National City Council had endorsed her. This week, it was Oceanside Congressmember Mike Levin’s turn.
Not to be outdone, Moreno last week announced that District 4 Supervisor Monica Montgomery-Steppe was backing her. Perhaps not coincidentally, Montgomery-Steppe won her own seat on the board in a special election following the surprise resignation of a Democratic Supervisor. Montgomery-Steppe replaced former Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, who stepped down in 2023 following sexual harassment allegations.
On the other side of the political spectrum, one key player, the Building Industry Association, which represents homebuilders, is expected to interview candidates in early February and announce an endorsement later that month. Homebuilders have a lot at stake in the race because they contend that recently enacted environmental policies make it almost impossible to build new homes in outlying parts of the county.
In previous elections, the homebuilders’ group has backed both McCann and Moreno, who tend to support home construction. The group could wind up in the unusual position of backing both a Democrat and Republican in the same race.
What the Candidates are Saying
I’ve been conducting in-depth interviews with each candidate to give readers an up-close look at their plans and personalities. The first two conversations, with Aguirre and Moreno, have already been published.
Here are some key areas where candidates are diverging. (Chavez has not yet issued policy pronouncements or sat for an interview with Voice of San Diego, so I’m unable to include her positions.)
Public safety. McCann and Moreno are out of the gate voicing strong support for law enforcement. McCann said in a short interview last week: “I’ve always been pro-law enforcement and I’m not a fair-weather friend of law enforcement.” Moreno echoed that position, saying recently, “We need to make sure we give [law enforcement] as much deference as possible.”
Aguirre struck a different tone, saying, “I don’t think over-policing is ever the solution to anything.” She said she seeks a balance between law enforcement and providing more resources to people in need.
All three candidates said they would seek an endorsement from the county sheriff’s union.
Housing and transportation. McCann and Moreno are also in agreement that a county policy aimed at limiting homebuilding in outlying areas may be doing more harm than good. The policy, known as Vehicle Miles Traveled, or VMT, discourages development projects that could cause homebuyers to travel long distances to work. Environmentalists say the policy is needed to fight climate change. Homebuilders say limiting development in a housing crisis makes no sense and just causes homebuyers to drive farther to cheaper homes in Riverside County.
Said McCann: “The VMT needs to be reformed, and we need to be allowed to build in other places without creating such urban congestion.” Moreno said she was still considering the issue but has “always been” skeptical of the VMT policy because data she has seen suggests the policy simply forces homebuyers out of the county.
Aguirre said she favors home construction, but also said she “will always favor public transit” and worries that building homes in outlying areas could expose residents to wildfires.
Tijuana River Sewage Crisis. All candidates agree that the ongoing crisis of untreated sewage flowing across the U.S.-Mexico border into the Tijuana River needs to be solved. They differ in their approach and levels of attention to the problem.
Aguirre and McCann have been most active on the issue, traveling to Washington, D.C. last year to lobby politicians from both parties for more funding and working with their city councils to declare states of emergency. Aguirre has made the crisis a signature issue and is widely credited with drawing attention and funding by assembling a bipartisan coalition of supporters. Moreno said she spearheaded a 2019 lawsuit that eventually resulted in millions of dollars to fix the problem.
In Other News
Residents were expected to pack this evening’s City Council meeting in Coronado to weigh in on who should replace Councilmember John Duncan, who vacated his Council seat following his election as mayor last year. A recent change in city policy enables Councilmembers to fill vacant seats by appointment rather than election. Some residents aren’t happy about that and were expected to press for a special election.
The National City Council tonight will decide whether to up the amount it pays an outside law firm to help with ongoing negotiations with the Port of San Diego over a range of contentious issues. The city has been seeking more reimbursement from the port for services the city provides on port property. The city also hopes to build hotels and other waterfront amenities that require port cooperation. The city will decide whether to increase the amount it pays the law firm Devaney Pate Morris Cameron, LLP to a maximum of $100,000.
The National City Council also will decide whether to hire an outside consultant to help city officials identify city-owned property that could be turned into new homes for purchase by National City residents. Most National City residents rent rather than own their homes, and city officials have made it a priority to increase home ownership opportunities.
U.S. Rep. Juan Vargas, who represents most of South San Diego County in Congress, issued a statement on Tuesday condemning President Donald Trump’s flurry of anti-immigration executive orders signed on Monday. Vargas said that the orders, which include effectively sealing the U.S.-Mexico border and ending the constitutional principle of birthright citizenship, are “cruel, un-American and…blatantly unlawful.” Vargas called instead for “comprehensive, humane immigration reform that includes pathways to citizenship, a strengthened system for processing asylum claims fairly and efficiently and relief for families who have been separated.”