As the national fight over which party controls Congress rages in Southern California, Republicans can, at least for now, breathe a sigh of relief in San Diego.
GOP County Supervisor Jim Desmond — buoyed by President Donald Trump’s blessing — handily advanced to the general election this week in the race for the hotly contested U.S. House seat. He’ll compete against Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic city councilmember.
Him locking up one of the two spots was no surprise, given he had no major Republican opponent.
But early results reveal a “best case scenario” for the party in the 48th Congressional District after redistricting redrew the district to slightly favor Democrats, spurring incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa to drop his re-election bid after 25 years, UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser said.
A longtime fixture in local politics, Desmond’s name recognition and donations to youth soccer leagues, for example, made him an easy choice for many voters.
“They got a good candidate,” Kousser said, referring to the Republican Party. “They got someone who was an experienced officeholder.”
Desmond advanced to November with nearly 41 percent of the vote as of Friday in California’s top-two primary where the highest vote-getters move to the general election. He terms out on the board of supervisors this year.
At one point a red dot in a sea of liberal districts, the 48th is one of few remnants of San Diego’s once-dominant Republican influence across national and local government. For the last decade, its voters have become more Democratic as Republicans, one by one, lost control of city and county offices, while statewide GOP voter registration continued to fall.
Votes being counted now are strongly Republican, suggesting the district’s more competitive than Democrats’ anticipated, Kousser said. The numbers could change as more ballots are counted because many undecided Democrats waited to cast their ballots until Tuesday.
This can take weeks due to California’s notoriously slow ballot count. San Diego County still has about 275,000 uncounted ballots after processing nearly 600,000.
Voters’ decision to pick von Wilpert over Ammar Campa-Najjar also reflected broader trends happening across the state.
More moderate and established Democrats scored big wins against progressive challengers who campaigned as outsider-disrupters. That includes gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, who is currently fending off progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and longtime San Francisco state Sen. Scott Wiener, who ousted his own progressive challenger.
Von Wilpert was the safer bet for voters looking for an experienced candidate compared to Campa-Najjar, a former Obama aide with two previous congressional runs and a failed bid for mayor in Chula Vista.
“Democrats in California and across the country are really showing that they’re focused on one overriding factor, and that’s turning over Congress to fight against Donald Trump. And they’re not demanding ideological purity from their candidates in order to do that,” Kousser said.
Local politics were also likely a factor. Most local Democratic officials coalesced around von Wilpert because of her track record flipping her city council district from Republican to Democratic.
“If they were in fact making an electability decision, there were a lot of reasons for them to go with a candidate who had the stronger electoral record and fewer political vulnerabilities,” Kousser said.
Campa-Najjar and von Wilpert largely agreed on policy except on the Israeli government, which Campa-Najjar was a vocal critic of later in his campaign.This led the Progressive Caucus PAC to back him after a major Israel donor group backed von Wilpert.
Further downballot, broader political trends played out in the Republican Party where early results showed far-right candidates faring better than established ones.
One of these is a San Diego state Senate seat. It’s at the heart of an intra-party conflict where voters weighed whether to latch onto the extreme right of the Republican Party — former Assembly candidate Kristie Bruce-Lane — or San Marcos City Councilmember Ed Musgrove. As of Friday, Bruce-Lane was leading Musgrove by about four percentage points.
The winner will face Democrat Mara Elliott, the former San Diego city attorney.
Bruce-Lane is backed by San Diego Assemblymember Carl DeMaio and his activist group Reform California. Musgrove is backed by most county party delegates and Sen. Brian Jones, who he’s seeking to replace.
In Northern California, a similar trend is taking shape as Republican Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil of Modesto struggles to fend off challenger Alexandra Duarte, who is further to her right.
Party leaders last month sent a cease and desist letter to DeMaio for distributing Reform California campaign materials with official GOP branding in support of Lane.
Despite ongoing concerns about DeMaio’s control over the party from Issa and other officials, party leaders later downplayed the letter and early election results showing the party’s preferred candidates in close races.
“I do believe that we will pick up seats in the state Legislature, in both the Assembly and the Senate, because we have such a great candidate at the top of the ticket,” said state Sen. Tony Strickland, referring to Steve Hilton, who’s leading in the governor’s race.
California GOP Chairwoman Corrin Rankin declined to comment on any of the races.
What I’m Reading Now
A dark horse Republican candidate threatens to lock Democrats out of a district they redrew in their favor, The Associated Press reports.
Los Angeles’ city attorney loses her reelection bid, a first for an incumbent in almost 100 years, the Los Angeles Times writes.
San Diegans are still angry over trash fees and paid parking. It showed at the polls when they voted against a second homes tax, from The San Diego Union-Tribune.
Thanks for reading the Sacramento Report. Please feel free to reach me with questions, tips or good recipes at nadia@voiceofsandiego.org.
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