Kenn Morris, an expert on binational business between the United States and Mexico, just sent me over an analysis of Baja California’s Sunday elections.

The analysis, prepared by Morris and Flavio Olivieri of Crossborder Business, Inc., states that as of 10:07 this morning, 91 percent of the votes in the election had been counted.

PAN’s José Guadalupe Osuna Millán had 50.6 percent of the votes and PRI’s Jorge Hank Rhon had 43.7 percent.

Here’s what Morris and Olivieri had to say about the election:

Both former mayors of Tijuana, the PAN victory comes after a strong campaign by Jorge Hank Rhon replete with election court challenges, accusations of political interference by both major parties, but a largely peaceful election day with minor cases of irregularities — including accusations of people handing out phone cards as well as money in exchange for votes, and dozens of pre-filled ballots found at various locations. Looking forward, with the new Governor taking power on November 1, 2007, expect a new State team with heavy representation from Tijuana.

Five mayoral races also took place in yesterday’s elections.

The Crossborder Business analysis states that, with a couple of exceptions, PAN appears to have won most of the new mayorships, including those in Tijuana, Ensenada and Tecate.

The analysis also has a few words to say about abstencionismo:

“Abstencionismo” — or the lack of voter participation — has often been called the “winning candidate” in many recent elections, due to low voter turnout rates. However, the 2007 elections appear to have mobilized the Baja California public, resulting in a higher than expected turnout of approximately 41% of eligible voters. While clearly lower than one might hope, it is useful to note that — in comparison — only approximately 39% of eligible voters in California actually participated in the November 2006 elections.


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