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Mark Goldman, a local mortgage broker and SDSU real estate lecturer, passed along some thoughts about the newest Case-Shiller numbers. Read his take, then let me know what you think:

My take – This is a positive sign, but we are not out of the woods yet on home prices. Positive Signs – Strong affordability – a function of price, income and interest rates. …

First time home buyer tax credit set to sunset at the end of November. Even if it is extended, it will not indefinitely support home prices and sales activity.

NOD and Trustee Sales (homes in foreclosure process) continue at similar paces adding “must sell” inventory to market.  Although, ForeclosureRadar.com guys do not think there is a lot of shadow inventory, I think it is a factor to keep in mind.

The seasonally adjusted increase is 1.5% for the month.  That is 18% per year, and that will not be sustained.

I expect home prices to moderate in the near term.

I had a couple of other pieces I couldn’t fit in the story last night:

  • Marigold Hernly, a real estate agent in City Heights whose clients are mostly first-time homebuyers, said the tax break’s Nov. 30 deadline was the driving force for the market lately.

    “From the standpoint of keeping things moving, it’s huge,” she said. “It may just all be psychological but, you know, it’s the only thing going.”

  • Frustration and frenzy were at the forefront of my chat with Jim Klinge yesterday about the housing market. He told me a fascinating tale of a buyer he’s working with who offered more than $100,000 over the asking price — all cash — and still lost. He blogs about that situation today.
  • Sheldon Ruckens, the somewhat bearish mortgage consultant I quoted, has a radio show on AM 1000 KCEO where he discusses the housing market.

And here are some other stories to check out for local housing/economic news:

  • The North County Times (with new housing reporter Eric Wolff) looks at the impact on traditional buyers of the intense competition in the market.
  • The U-T’s Dean Calbreath breaks down the newest USD economic index, which showed its sixth straight monthly gain yesterday.

What do you make of all of this? Leave a comment below (head to Survival if you’re not already there).

KELLY BENNETT

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