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The July update of the Case-Shiller San Diego home price index is in. The index increased by 2.5 percent from June — a substantial (if expected) one-month bounce.

As usual, Kelly has done a nice writeup on month-to-month changes with and without seasonal adjustments. I’ll supplement her piece with some visual aids.

First up is a look at the three price tiers and the aggregate price index from their respective peaks in the 2005-2006 region:

While the recent price increase has been unusually strong in the context of a preceding decline, it appears less significant compared to the mighty boom-bust cycle that has played out this decade:

Here is a two-decade look at prices:

This next chart tracks the year-over-year rate of change for the three tiers and the aggregate index.

This figure has improved vastly over the past year. Overall prices were still falling at about a 12 percent rate as of July, but look at how much this rate has slowed: the year-over-year rate of decline was 25 percent a year prior and 16 percent just a month prior. If the current rally can continue for a while, prices could actually soon be rising on a year-over-year basis. Of course, that’s a fairly big “if.”

— RICH TOSCANO

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