The July update of the Case-Shiller San Diego home price index is in. The index increased by 2.5 percent from June — a substantial (if expected) one-month bounce.

As usual, Kelly has done a nice writeup on month-to-month changes with and without seasonal adjustments. I’ll supplement her piece with some visual aids.

First up is a look at the three price tiers and the aggregate price index from their respective peaks in the 2005-2006 region:

While the recent price increase has been unusually strong in the context of a preceding decline, it appears less significant compared to the mighty boom-bust cycle that has played out this decade:

Here is a two-decade look at prices:

This next chart tracks the year-over-year rate of change for the three tiers and the aggregate index.

This figure has improved vastly over the past year. Overall prices were still falling at about a 12 percent rate as of July, but look at how much this rate has slowed: the year-over-year rate of decline was 25 percent a year prior and 16 percent just a month prior. If the current rally can continue for a while, prices could actually soon be rising on a year-over-year basis. Of course, that’s a fairly big “if.”


Leave a comment

We expect all commenters to be constructive and civil. We reserve the right to delete comments without explanation. You are welcome to flag comments to us. You are welcome to submit an opinion piece for our editors to review.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.